If Donald J. Trump wins the majority of states tonight, will it be possible at all to slow him down? What's at stake on #SuperTuesday? Mika breaks down the delegate count on both sides. Here are the latest results from the monmouth Poll they are speaking about at the outset ofthe show:
Super Tuesday 2: Clinton, Trump Take Big Leads Into Key Contests. Hillary Clinton maintains a sizable lead over Bernie Sanders in the race for the Democratic nomination — 54 percent to 41 percent — while Donald Trump is a full 20 points ahead of any other Republican candidate.
Trump leads Ted Cruz 44 to 24 percent, followed by John Kasich (12 percent) and Marco Rubio (11 percent). These results are according to the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll for the week of March 7 through March 13, 2016 among a national sample of 8,840 adults aged 18 and over, including 7,321 who say they are registered to vote.
Clinton's overall numbers dipped to a 13-point lead over Sanders, perhaps due to Sanders' surprising win in Michigan on March 8.
Results from our latest week of polling show that Sanders remains competitive with Clinton among registered Democratic and Democratic-leaning men overall — 46 percent for Sanders and 49 percent for Clinton. The margin among women, however, more decidedly favors Clinton. Women favor Clinton by nearly 20 points — 57 percent to 37 percent.
While Sanders is slightly more favored among white and Hispanic men, black men still favor Clinton by about 50 points. This is similar to Clinton's favorability among black women. Women across all race groups favor Clinton over Sanders, but the margin is smallest among white women — 51 percent to 42 percent.
Clinton's popularity among women does not hold true across all age groups, however. Among all registered women under age 30, 62 percent favor Sanders to Clinton. Women age 30 and older favor Clinton over Sanders by nearly 30 points.
Clear advantages by both Sanders and Clinton across key demographic groups have been strong predictors of how well each performs. In states with large minority voting groups, Clinton has performed exceptionally well, although the Sanders team has argued they are doing well with Hispanics. How well each does in the upcoming primary and caucus states will largely be determined by the demographics of the electorate.
Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, Kasich moves up to third place this week with 12 percent, up 3 points from last week. But Kasich is still virtually tied with Marco Rubio, who dropped 7 points from last week to 11 percent. Trump and Cruz have gained some momentum this week, which could be a result of Ben Carson dropping out of the race. As the Republican field winnows down, Trump remains the front-runner with 44 percent of support, up 5 points from last week. Cruz also got a boost to 24 percent, up 4 points from last week. It remains to be seen whether the controversy and publicity surrounding the Trump events over the weekend will have an impact on Trump or the field this coming week.
As previous weeks of the tracking poll have shown, Trump still leads among most demographic groups, including men (47 percent) and women (41 percent), voters 65 years old and above (49 percent), those with an education level of high school or less (49 percent), income under $50,000 (47 percent) and white Evangelicals (42 percent).
Republicans who describe themselves as very conservative, however, support Cruz over Trump, 42 percent to 40 percent. That margin is smaller than last week's tracking poll, which showed Cruz winning 36 percent of those who identify as very conservative and Trump getting support from 31 percent of that group.
The NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking poll was conducted online March 7 through March 13, 2016 among a national sample of 8,840 adults aged 18 and over, including 7,321 who say they are registered to vote. Respondents for this non-probability survey were selected from the nearly three million people who take surveys on the SurveyMonkey platform each day. Results have an error estimate of plus or minus 1.7 percentage points.
Why crushing it Tuesday is so important for Trump.
Tuesday could be the last stand for the "stop Trump" movement in the Republican Party. If the real estate mogul manages to win Florida and Ohio and their combined 165 delegates, there is probably no stopping Donald Trump from wrapping up the nomination before the party's convention in Cleveland in July.
Ohio looks like the establishment's best hope. Polls show the race either tied in the Buckeye state or give Ohio Gov. John Kasich a slight edge. He has the backing of the state party establishment and is campaigning on Monday with Ohio GOP Sen. Rob Portman and 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney. If all of this is not enough to keep Ohio from Trump, then nothing can stop him.
Florida, which like Ohio is winner take all for the GOP, looks like a near lock for Trump, with polls showing him up an average of nearly 20 points over home state Sen. Marco Rubio. If Rubio pulls off the shock victory for the 99 delegates, it would be yet another blow for the polling industry. The Rubio campaign hopes to run up big numbers in South Florida to counter Trump's strength to the north but Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has made a late play to try to deny Rubio the win and drive him from the race. He may succeed in doing just that. Cruz has even edged ahead of Rubio in some Florida polls. A third-place finish in the state would be a devastating embarrassment for Rubio.
If Kasich wins Ohio and Trump wins Florida, supporters of the effort to stop Trump still believe they can keep him from getting to 1,237 delegates before the convention and ultimately deny him the nomination. Cruz is relatively close to Trump in two other states voting on Tuesday, Illinois and Missouri, and could collect some delegates in each state as well as in North Carolina. Kasich could also pick up some delegates outside Ohio on Tuesday.
After Tuesday, the GOP race turns to the West and Northeast. Trump could do well in many of these states but he is by no means a lock. Cruz, for instance, led Trump in a California primary poll taken in January. The California primary isn't until June and has rarely mattered in recent GOP history. But if it's a race to block Trump from getting a majority of delegates, it could matter in 2016.
California has 172 delegates and is a winner-take-all state. Many but not all of the remaining GOP primary states are winner take all as well. Trump opponents note that some of the bigger remaining contests including New York, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Oregon and Washington state all award delegates on a proportional basis. Trump could win some or all of them but perhaps not convincingly. The theory of the case for Trump opponents funding ads against him is that if he splits Florida and Ohio he would need to run up delegates at a pace far greater than he is now in order to get to 1,237 by July.
Hey Trump — it's not 1984
So far, Trump has not been able to consolidate his support into a majority of the GOP primary electorate. More Republicans continue to vote for non-Trump candidates than for Trump. If that continues, Trump will go into the convention without the delegates he needs and could face losing the nomination to a consensus candidate after multiple ballots. And all the chaos at recent Trump events could serve to both harden the billionaire's core support while also limiting his ability to break out above 50 percent and lock down the nomination.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is once again set for big victories according to the polls. But she was also viewed as a near lock in Michigan last week and lost to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. So anything can happen. Sanders has closed in on Clinton in Ohio and a win there would extend the race and likely force Clinton even further to the left on trade and other issues. Illinois and Missouri are also close. So outside of Florida, it's possible that Clinton could wind up having a rough night on Tuesday and a Democratic race most thought would be over early will extend well into the spring.
If Trump splits the two big states, establishment dreams of keeping him from the 1,237 delegates he needs will remain viable. If he somehow loses both, Trump could be in real trouble. Trump could take the other big prizes on Tuesday, but Kasich has a shot in Illinois and Cruz has his best chance in Missouri.
Mitt Romney to Campaign With John Kasich in Ohio. Mitt Romney will campaign with John Kasich Monday at two stops in Ohio, NBC News has learned from a source familiar with the plans.
Romney is not expected to endorse the Ohio governor during the campaign swing, the source said, but it will be the first time Romney has campaigned on behalf of a Republican candidate this cycle.
It's a significant move for the former Republican nominee, who previously recorded campaign telephone "robocalls" for Kasich as well as Marco Rubio.
Earlier this month, at a speech in Utah, Romney lambasted frontrunner Donald Trump as a "fraud" and warned of the dangers to the Republican Party if Trump were the nominee.
"I believe with all my heart and soul that we face another time for choosing," said Romney at the time, "one that will have profound consequences for the Republican party and more importantly, for the country."
Romney is expected to appear with Kasich at his events in Canton and outside Columbus Monday afternoon. The trips come one day before the crucial Ohio primary, a must-win for Kasich, as Trump ups his attacks on the sitting governor.
Kasich is scheduled to make three stops in Utah on Friday - in Orem, Salt Lake City, and Kaysville. Utah's primary is on March 22.
What’s At Stake For Democrats In The March 15 Primaries. We preview the races in Florida, Ohio and everywhere else.
Bernie Sanders’s surprise win in Michigan last week upended the Democratic presidential primary. Or not — Hillary Clinton still has a big lead in pledged delegates. Here’s the big question for Democrats right now: Was Michigan a fluke? If so, Clinton will easily win Ohio on Tuesday, along with Florida and North Carolina. If not, Sanders could win the Buckeye State. Illinois and Missouri, meanwhile, look to be more competitive regardless of what really happened in Michigan. Let’s take each contest one at a time. (Also, check out my preview of the Republican contests.)
Florida primary
214 delegates (140 district, 74 statewide)
Florida could be Clinton’s best state on Tuesday. Clinton has done disproportionately well with black voters and older voters this year, and Florida is diverse (just 66 percent of Democratic voters were white in the 2008 primary, and that number will probably be lower this year) and old (28 percent of Democratic primary voters in 2008 were 65 or older). It’ll also be interesting to see how Sanders performs with Latino voters, who seem to have supported Clinton thus far, but the evidence is mixed. Either way, no poll in March has shown Clinton ahead by fewer than 20 percentage points. Unless we have a Michigan-level polling miss, Clinton is going to well exceed her delegate target in Florida. If some of the polls giving her a larger lead in the state are correct, she’ll probably end the day leading Sanders by more than 300 pledged delegates. That would make her pretty much impossible to catch in the race overall.
Illinois primary
156 delegates (102 district, 54 statewide)
To say the polls disagree in Illinois is to say that lamb tastes different than tuna fish. A recent Chicago Tribune poll gave Clinton a 42 percentage point lead, and a YouGov poll taken last week gave Sanders a 2 percentage point advantage. Combine that craziness with the polling miss in Michigan, and I’m not sure anyone can say with certainty what will happen in Illinois. Could Sanders overperform in Illinois as he did in Michigan? Sure. Both states are Midwestern, obviously, and both hold open primaries. That said, Illinois has a more racially diverse Democratic electorate than Michigan, and the demographics of the state suggest that Clinton should win Illinois with a margin in the single digits in a race that is tied nationally. As in all Democratic primaries, the margin is key because delegates are awarded proportionally. But really, who knows what will happen.
Ohio primary
143 delegates (93 district, 50 statewide)
No poll this month has had Sanders ahead in Ohio, but the state is right next to Michigan, is similar demographically and is also an open primary. (Are you sensing a theme here yet? The polling miss in Michigan hangs over everything.) One thing that could work to Clinton’s advantage in Ohio is that white voters in the southern half of the state voted more like Southern whites than Northern whites in 2008, and Clinton has done better with Southern whites than with Northern whites in the primary so far. One complicating factor is that Gov. John Kasich is on the ballot in the Republican primary, and any voter can choose either a Democratic or Republican ballot. Although he’s a Republican, Kasich drew an amazingly high 43 percent approval rating from Democrats in the most recent Quinnipiac poll of the state. Don’t be surprised if some Democrats — in an effort to stop Donald Trump — vote for Kasich in the Republican primary instead. What effect would that have on the Democratic race? Your guess is as good as mine.
North Carolina primary
107 delegates (70 district, 37 statewide)
This is the last truly Southern state to vote this primary season, and Clinton should carry the Tar Heel State easily. Clinton won North Carolina’s neighbors by 29 percentage points (Virginia) and 47 percentage points (South Carolina). The state is more similar demographically to Virginia, and the polls seem to reflect that. Sanders will be most likely to keep it close if there’s heavy turnout from college students around Raleigh, young transplants around Charlotte and white voters in the western part of the state. The problem for Sanders, as illustrated in a recent Civitas survey of North Carolina, is that he is likely to lose black voters going away. Civitas showed him losing black voters by 58 percentage points this month. That is nowhere near good enough for Sanders and will probably leave him well short of his delegate target in the state.
Missouri primary
71 delegates (47 district, 24 statewide)
There has been almost no polling in Missouri. The few polls of the state have found a tight race. That matches our delegate targets for Clinton and Sanders, which suggest that in a tied national race, Missouri should be close. One thing Clinton does have going for her is that the Democratic primary electorate probably will have a larger share of black voters than that of Iowa to the north (which Clinton barely won), and Clinton easily took Arkansas to the south (where she enjoyed a home-field advantage). Still, Missouri may have a whiter Democratic primary electorate than any other state voting Tuesday. Sanders has to hope he can capitalize on an open primary, as he did in Michigan. The bad news for Sanders is that even if he does earn a small victory over Clinton, he’s so far behind in his delegate targets that he needs to be exceeding them to catch up.
What's next if Marco Rubio loses Florida? Marco Rubio's presidential campaign has presented the youthful Florida senator as the future of the Republican Party.
On Tuesday, that image -- along with Rubio's political career -- is at stake.
Rubio, who began his White House campaign 11 months ago as a hero of Florida Republicans, now faces the prospect of defeat in his home state. For years, Republicans believed that Rubio was destined to be a presidential nominee and that even if he fell short in 2016, he would be well-positioned to run for governor in 2018.
But polls suggest Rubio might not just lose Florida -- but get thumped here. A Quinnipiac survey released Monday found Rubio trailing Trump by 24 points in his home state.
A loss of that magnitude could be devastating to Rubio, and leave him in a tough spot if he ever wanted to seek public office again.
Of course, Rubio could eke out a surprise win in defiance of the polls, as Bernie Sanders did in the Michigan Democratic primary last week. For his part, Rubio has insisted he will win. But as he traveled across the state making his final appeal to voters, he hardly exuded the swagger of a candidate in his home state, and grudgingly confronted questions about his intentions after Tuesday.
"January of next year, I will either be president of the United States or I will be a private citizen. If I never hold elected office again, I'm comfortable with that," Rubio told CNN at a press conference in West Palm Beach. "I can't tell you what's going to happen two to four years from now but I have no plans, no thoughts, no contemplation, no meetings, nothing, about any future political run of any sort."
For starters, some Rubio backers said he should end his campaign if he loses Florida.
"We're the backbone -- at least we're supposed to be -- and if he doesn't have the backbone, he can't have a body," said Amethyst Ditieri, a 22-year-old Rubio supporter who attended a campaign event in Orlando on Sunday.
Setting aside his national ambitions, even some former Rubio allies say that he might struggle to re-enter Florida politics if he loses the primary by a wide margin.
Taking a toll on Rubio's standing
His presidential campaign, they say, has taken a toll on his standing in the state. The rift between Rubio and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush could be problematic in a future campaign, and the time Rubio has spent away from the state has come at a price.
Speculation about Rubio's future has focused on the 2018 race for governor, when Rick Scott will be term limited. Winning the governorship could position Rubio for a comeback in national politics.
But several other Republicans have been circling the race, and it's unclear whether Rubio still has the political strength at home to dominate a statewide race.
Will Weatherford, a former Florida House speaker, who is seen as a possible future candidate for the governorship or the Senate, told CNN this week that Rubio was a "gifted" politician with many doors open to him in Florida politics.
But, he said he did not believe Rubio could crowd other Republicans out of an open-seat race.
"There are other people that would and are considering that seat," Weatherford said. "If he ran, he would be extremely viable, but I certainly don't think he would clear the field."
Preserving his legacy
In what could be the final days of his presidential campaign, Rubio has seemed determined to preserve his legacy.
After briefly adapting Trump's strategy of lobbing personal -- and at times juvenile -- attacks on the campaign trail, Rubio quickly reversed course, saying he regretted his decision to reciprocate Trump's style. Casting aside insults about the color of Trump's hair and the size of his hands, Rubio has returned to the forward-looking message that has fueled his White House campaign since its launch.
He delivered a strong performance at CNN's presidential debate in Miami on Thursday, arguing that Trump's rhetoric isn't presidential. When the billionaire said he didn't want to be "so politically correct," Rubio responded with one of his most memorable lines of the night: "I'm not interested in being politically correct. I'm interested in being correct."
And by Monday night, he struck a decidedly reflective note.
"My whole life, I have been told being humble is a virtue," he said during a speech in West Palm Beach. "And now, being humble is a weakness and being vain and self-absorbed is somehow a virtue."
Marco Rubio's final Florida push
The gradual deterioration of Rubio's presidential campaign has exposed hard feelings toward the first-term senator within Florida's political circles.
Tampa mayor Bob Buckhorn, a Democrat who has expressed interest in running for governor, said losing Florida on Tuesday would be the ultimate repudiation of Rubio by his own constituents. Buckhorn has vocally criticized Rubio in recent weeks for being inattentive to Florida while he has pursued national office.
"He's never really taken the time to establish real relationships and real roots in Florida and has literally been running for president since the day he took office. I don't just say that as a Democrat," said Buckhorn, who complained that he has never once met Rubio. "There are folks on the Republican side who echo the same sentiments."
Rubio vs. Bush
Further complicating Rubio's relationship with Florida Republicans and donors is his decision this cycle to mount a direct challenge to Bush, his former mentor.
Florida insiders say there is a raw sense of betrayal among Bush allies towards Rubio, and that the bad blood between Bush loyalists and the Rubio camp could interfere with the senator's future aspirations in the state.
Since ending his White House campaign last month after a disappointing finish in South Carolina, Bush has remained out of the public spotlight. Sources close to the former governor say he is unlikely to make an endorsement ahead of the Florida contest.
But Rubio's allies insist that even if Rubio loses to Trump in Florida on Tuesday, voters will ultimately be forgiving. They say it is clear that there are unprecedented emotions fueling the 2016 election and that the Trump campaign, too, is an extraordinary phenomenon.
"What you're seeing is an angry public," said former Florida state Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff, who is supporting Rubio's campaign.
Trump is "talking their language right now and a segment of the population is very attracted to that," she continued. "Is it the best for our future in terms of our governance? That's yet to be seen. But it's all about timing. It's all about timing."
Over the weekend, Rubio delivered a sober speech at Temple Beth El in West Palm Beach, expounding on the importance of the U.S.-Israeli relationship. He warned that if Trump wins the presidency, his intentions of "forcing Israel to the negotiating table" only "weakens Israel and only further emboldens their enemies."
The temple's rabbi, Leonid Feldman, said the speech was emblematic of Rubio's raw political talent and boundless future potential.
"He is clearly a leader, he has charisma, he has knowledge. He could be -- who knows -- maybe whoever it is, let's say it is Donald Trump. Maybe he'll go back to Little Rubio and say he'll be his national security adviser," Feldman said. "What we're witnessing now is unprecedented in American history. Really." CNN's Ashley Killough contributed to this story
Regardless of it all happening on this very important primary day, please stay in touch!
| - FLORIDA: Trump Widens Lead Over Rubio | |
| - OHIO: Kasich, Trump in GOP Squeaker; Clinton Leads in Dem Race |
Trump leads Ted Cruz 44 to 24 percent, followed by John Kasich (12 percent) and Marco Rubio (11 percent). These results are according to the NBC News|SurveyMonkey Weekly Election Tracking Poll for the week of March 7 through March 13, 2016 among a national sample of 8,840 adults aged 18 and over, including 7,321 who say they are registered to vote.
Clinton's overall numbers dipped to a 13-point lead over Sanders, perhaps due to Sanders' surprising win in Michigan on March 8.
While Sanders is slightly more favored among white and Hispanic men, black men still favor Clinton by about 50 points. This is similar to Clinton's favorability among black women. Women across all race groups favor Clinton over Sanders, but the margin is smallest among white women — 51 percent to 42 percent.
Among Republican and Republican-leaning voters, Kasich moves up to third place this week with 12 percent, up 3 points from last week. But Kasich is still virtually tied with Marco Rubio, who dropped 7 points from last week to 11 percent. Trump and Cruz have gained some momentum this week, which could be a result of Ben Carson dropping out of the race. As the Republican field winnows down, Trump remains the front-runner with 44 percent of support, up 5 points from last week. Cruz also got a boost to 24 percent, up 4 points from last week. It remains to be seen whether the controversy and publicity surrounding the Trump events over the weekend will have an impact on Trump or the field this coming week.
Republicans who describe themselves as very conservative, however, support Cruz over Trump, 42 percent to 40 percent. That margin is smaller than last week's tracking poll, which showed Cruz winning 36 percent of those who identify as very conservative and Trump getting support from 31 percent of that group.
Why crushing it Tuesday is so important for Trump.
Tuesday could be the last stand for the "stop Trump" movement in the Republican Party. If the real estate mogul manages to win Florida and Ohio and their combined 165 delegates, there is probably no stopping Donald Trump from wrapping up the nomination before the party's convention in Cleveland in July.
Ohio looks like the establishment's best hope. Polls show the race either tied in the Buckeye state or give Ohio Gov. John Kasich a slight edge. He has the backing of the state party establishment and is campaigning on Monday with Ohio GOP Sen. Rob Portman and 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney. If all of this is not enough to keep Ohio from Trump, then nothing can stop him.
Florida, which like Ohio is winner take all for the GOP, looks like a near lock for Trump, with polls showing him up an average of nearly 20 points over home state Sen. Marco Rubio. If Rubio pulls off the shock victory for the 99 delegates, it would be yet another blow for the polling industry. The Rubio campaign hopes to run up big numbers in South Florida to counter Trump's strength to the north but Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas has made a late play to try to deny Rubio the win and drive him from the race. He may succeed in doing just that. Cruz has even edged ahead of Rubio in some Florida polls. A third-place finish in the state would be a devastating embarrassment for Rubio.
If Kasich wins Ohio and Trump wins Florida, supporters of the effort to stop Trump still believe they can keep him from getting to 1,237 delegates before the convention and ultimately deny him the nomination. Cruz is relatively close to Trump in two other states voting on Tuesday, Illinois and Missouri, and could collect some delegates in each state as well as in North Carolina. Kasich could also pick up some delegates outside Ohio on Tuesday.
After Tuesday, the GOP race turns to the West and Northeast. Trump could do well in many of these states but he is by no means a lock. Cruz, for instance, led Trump in a California primary poll taken in January. The California primary isn't until June and has rarely mattered in recent GOP history. But if it's a race to block Trump from getting a majority of delegates, it could matter in 2016.
California has 172 delegates and is a winner-take-all state. Many but not all of the remaining GOP primary states are winner take all as well. Trump opponents note that some of the bigger remaining contests including New York, Wisconsin, Connecticut, Oregon and Washington state all award delegates on a proportional basis. Trump could win some or all of them but perhaps not convincingly. The theory of the case for Trump opponents funding ads against him is that if he splits Florida and Ohio he would need to run up delegates at a pace far greater than he is now in order to get to 1,237 by July.
Hey Trump — it's not 1984
So far, Trump has not been able to consolidate his support into a majority of the GOP primary electorate. More Republicans continue to vote for non-Trump candidates than for Trump. If that continues, Trump will go into the convention without the delegates he needs and could face losing the nomination to a consensus candidate after multiple ballots. And all the chaos at recent Trump events could serve to both harden the billionaire's core support while also limiting his ability to break out above 50 percent and lock down the nomination.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is once again set for big victories according to the polls. But she was also viewed as a near lock in Michigan last week and lost to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders. So anything can happen. Sanders has closed in on Clinton in Ohio and a win there would extend the race and likely force Clinton even further to the left on trade and other issues. Illinois and Missouri are also close. So outside of Florida, it's possible that Clinton could wind up having a rough night on Tuesday and a Democratic race most thought would be over early will extend well into the spring.
If Trump splits the two big states, establishment dreams of keeping him from the 1,237 delegates he needs will remain viable. If he somehow loses both, Trump could be in real trouble. Trump could take the other big prizes on Tuesday, but Kasich has a shot in Illinois and Cruz has his best chance in Missouri.
Mitt Romney to Campaign With John Kasich in Ohio. Mitt Romney will campaign with John Kasich Monday at two stops in Ohio, NBC News has learned from a source familiar with the plans.
Romney is not expected to endorse the Ohio governor during the campaign swing, the source said, but it will be the first time Romney has campaigned on behalf of a Republican candidate this cycle.
It's a significant move for the former Republican nominee, who previously recorded campaign telephone "robocalls" for Kasich as well as Marco Rubio.
Earlier this month, at a speech in Utah, Romney lambasted frontrunner Donald Trump as a "fraud" and warned of the dangers to the Republican Party if Trump were the nominee.
"I believe with all my heart and soul that we face another time for choosing," said Romney at the time, "one that will have profound consequences for the Republican party and more importantly, for the country."
Romney is expected to appear with Kasich at his events in Canton and outside Columbus Monday afternoon. The trips come one day before the crucial Ohio primary, a must-win for Kasich, as Trump ups his attacks on the sitting governor.
Kasich is scheduled to make three stops in Utah on Friday - in Orem, Salt Lake City, and Kaysville. Utah's primary is on March 22.
What’s At Stake For Democrats In The March 15 Primaries. We preview the races in Florida, Ohio and everywhere else.
Bernie Sanders’s surprise win in Michigan last week upended the Democratic presidential primary. Or not — Hillary Clinton still has a big lead in pledged delegates. Here’s the big question for Democrats right now: Was Michigan a fluke? If so, Clinton will easily win Ohio on Tuesday, along with Florida and North Carolina. If not, Sanders could win the Buckeye State. Illinois and Missouri, meanwhile, look to be more competitive regardless of what really happened in Michigan. Let’s take each contest one at a time. (Also, check out my preview of the Republican contests.)
Florida primary
214 delegates (140 district, 74 statewide)
Illinois primary
156 delegates (102 district, 54 statewide)
Ohio primary
143 delegates (93 district, 50 statewide)
North Carolina primary
107 delegates (70 district, 37 statewide)
Missouri primary
71 delegates (47 district, 24 statewide)
What's next if Marco Rubio loses Florida? Marco Rubio's presidential campaign has presented the youthful Florida senator as the future of the Republican Party.
On Tuesday, that image -- along with Rubio's political career -- is at stake.
Rubio, who began his White House campaign 11 months ago as a hero of Florida Republicans, now faces the prospect of defeat in his home state. For years, Republicans believed that Rubio was destined to be a presidential nominee and that even if he fell short in 2016, he would be well-positioned to run for governor in 2018.
But polls suggest Rubio might not just lose Florida -- but get thumped here. A Quinnipiac survey released Monday found Rubio trailing Trump by 24 points in his home state.
A loss of that magnitude could be devastating to Rubio, and leave him in a tough spot if he ever wanted to seek public office again.
Of course, Rubio could eke out a surprise win in defiance of the polls, as Bernie Sanders did in the Michigan Democratic primary last week. For his part, Rubio has insisted he will win. But as he traveled across the state making his final appeal to voters, he hardly exuded the swagger of a candidate in his home state, and grudgingly confronted questions about his intentions after Tuesday.
"January of next year, I will either be president of the United States or I will be a private citizen. If I never hold elected office again, I'm comfortable with that," Rubio told CNN at a press conference in West Palm Beach. "I can't tell you what's going to happen two to four years from now but I have no plans, no thoughts, no contemplation, no meetings, nothing, about any future political run of any sort."
For starters, some Rubio backers said he should end his campaign if he loses Florida.
"We're the backbone -- at least we're supposed to be -- and if he doesn't have the backbone, he can't have a body," said Amethyst Ditieri, a 22-year-old Rubio supporter who attended a campaign event in Orlando on Sunday.
Setting aside his national ambitions, even some former Rubio allies say that he might struggle to re-enter Florida politics if he loses the primary by a wide margin.
Taking a toll on Rubio's standing
His presidential campaign, they say, has taken a toll on his standing in the state. The rift between Rubio and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush could be problematic in a future campaign, and the time Rubio has spent away from the state has come at a price.
Speculation about Rubio's future has focused on the 2018 race for governor, when Rick Scott will be term limited. Winning the governorship could position Rubio for a comeback in national politics.
But several other Republicans have been circling the race, and it's unclear whether Rubio still has the political strength at home to dominate a statewide race.
Will Weatherford, a former Florida House speaker, who is seen as a possible future candidate for the governorship or the Senate, told CNN this week that Rubio was a "gifted" politician with many doors open to him in Florida politics.
But, he said he did not believe Rubio could crowd other Republicans out of an open-seat race.
"There are other people that would and are considering that seat," Weatherford said. "If he ran, he would be extremely viable, but I certainly don't think he would clear the field."
Preserving his legacy
In what could be the final days of his presidential campaign, Rubio has seemed determined to preserve his legacy.
After briefly adapting Trump's strategy of lobbing personal -- and at times juvenile -- attacks on the campaign trail, Rubio quickly reversed course, saying he regretted his decision to reciprocate Trump's style. Casting aside insults about the color of Trump's hair and the size of his hands, Rubio has returned to the forward-looking message that has fueled his White House campaign since its launch.
He delivered a strong performance at CNN's presidential debate in Miami on Thursday, arguing that Trump's rhetoric isn't presidential. When the billionaire said he didn't want to be "so politically correct," Rubio responded with one of his most memorable lines of the night: "I'm not interested in being politically correct. I'm interested in being correct."
And by Monday night, he struck a decidedly reflective note.
"My whole life, I have been told being humble is a virtue," he said during a speech in West Palm Beach. "And now, being humble is a weakness and being vain and self-absorbed is somehow a virtue."
Marco Rubio's final Florida push
The gradual deterioration of Rubio's presidential campaign has exposed hard feelings toward the first-term senator within Florida's political circles.
Tampa mayor Bob Buckhorn, a Democrat who has expressed interest in running for governor, said losing Florida on Tuesday would be the ultimate repudiation of Rubio by his own constituents. Buckhorn has vocally criticized Rubio in recent weeks for being inattentive to Florida while he has pursued national office.
"He's never really taken the time to establish real relationships and real roots in Florida and has literally been running for president since the day he took office. I don't just say that as a Democrat," said Buckhorn, who complained that he has never once met Rubio. "There are folks on the Republican side who echo the same sentiments."
Rubio vs. Bush
Further complicating Rubio's relationship with Florida Republicans and donors is his decision this cycle to mount a direct challenge to Bush, his former mentor.
Florida insiders say there is a raw sense of betrayal among Bush allies towards Rubio, and that the bad blood between Bush loyalists and the Rubio camp could interfere with the senator's future aspirations in the state.
Since ending his White House campaign last month after a disappointing finish in South Carolina, Bush has remained out of the public spotlight. Sources close to the former governor say he is unlikely to make an endorsement ahead of the Florida contest.
But Rubio's allies insist that even if Rubio loses to Trump in Florida on Tuesday, voters will ultimately be forgiving. They say it is clear that there are unprecedented emotions fueling the 2016 election and that the Trump campaign, too, is an extraordinary phenomenon.
"What you're seeing is an angry public," said former Florida state Sen. Ellyn Bogdanoff, who is supporting Rubio's campaign.
Trump is "talking their language right now and a segment of the population is very attracted to that," she continued. "Is it the best for our future in terms of our governance? That's yet to be seen. But it's all about timing. It's all about timing."
Over the weekend, Rubio delivered a sober speech at Temple Beth El in West Palm Beach, expounding on the importance of the U.S.-Israeli relationship. He warned that if Trump wins the presidency, his intentions of "forcing Israel to the negotiating table" only "weakens Israel and only further emboldens their enemies."
The temple's rabbi, Leonid Feldman, said the speech was emblematic of Rubio's raw political talent and boundless future potential.
"He is clearly a leader, he has charisma, he has knowledge. He could be -- who knows -- maybe whoever it is, let's say it is Donald Trump. Maybe he'll go back to Little Rubio and say he'll be his national security adviser," Feldman said. "What we're witnessing now is unprecedented in American history. Really." CNN's Ashley Killough contributed to this story
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