Progressive Breakfast: A Look At The "Trade" Votes That Will Happen Today In the House

MORNING MESSAGE

After a narrow and suspenseful 217-212 approval Thursday on a procedural vote, the House is scheduled today to have a series of debates and votes that could lead to passage of “fast track” trade promotion authority (TPA) ... Votes on two more bills today will lead up to the big vote on fast track, which essentially preapproves the TPP ... A bill on customs and trade law enforcement is being “loaded up” with amendments ... to “buy votes” for fast-track ... Before the fast-track TPA vote there will be a vote on trade adjustment assistance (TAA). If TAA does not pass, many Democrats who have declared support for fast track could vote against it after all.

Final Fast Track Showdown Today

House Dems might thwart fast track today by killing Trade Adjustment Assistance first. NYT: “The trade assistance measure, long opposed by Republicans as ineffective and unnecessary, was devised to attract support for the trade promotion bill from Democrats … [But] Democrats who oppose ‘fast track’ … know that by voting down the trade assistance bill, they can kill the whole package. Republican leaders [would then] not even bring the trade promotion bill to a vote.”
Though Republicans could save TAA: “Because of possible Democratic defections, Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.) said the GOP whip team may have to approach some anti-TAA Republicans and ask them to vote in favor.”
Neither side has the numbers in hand. Politico: “…top lawmakers and aides say the fate of the trade deal is anyone’s guess … Pelosi has not said how she‘ll vote on either TAA or fast track … The lack of guidance from their leaders has left the House Democratic Caucus rudderless, and created a big opening for opponents to work their will.”
President Obama conducts last-minute lobbying at congressional charity baseball game last night. USA Today: “Upon arriving, he first sought out House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi … Obama visited both the Democratic and Republican dugouts, but spent only about an inning at the game … As Obama left the field, Republicans chanted, ‘T-P-A! T-P-A!'”

Hillary Kickoff Rally Tomorrow

Don’t expect policy specifics at Hillary Clinton’s kickoff rally tomorrow. W. Post: ” Instead, her advisers said Thursday, she will speak about her upbringing as the daughter of a woman who was abandoned as a child and why she sees herself as an advocate for those left behind in a fast-changing economy. She also intends to draw contrasts with Republicans, portraying them as champions of corporations and the super-rich.”
But Politico says the policies will come: “…she’s building her strategy around a series of domestic policy rollouts … What’s emerging—and her staff maintains she’s made no big decisions on the stickiest subjects, such as whether to propose tax increases and Wall Street regulation—are classic Clinton thread-the-needle proposals, albeit with a slightly sharper needle, pointing unmistakably to the left.”

While Bernie Rolls Out Agenda

Bernie Sanders pushes paid vacation. The Hill: “…he is introducing a bill, the Guaranteed Paid Vacation Act, that would give 10 days of paid vacation to every employee that had worked for an employer for at least one year. The legislation would apply to employers with at least 15 employees.”
And working on tax code revamp. Bloomberg: “Sanders said he is ‘working right now on a comprehensive tax package, which I suspect will, for the top marginal rates, go over 50 percent,’ though he wouldn’t endorse a specific rate yet … while the White House and many Republicans want to lower the corporate tax rate, Sanders said he wants to raise it.”

Breakfast Sides

Scott Walker used “divide-and-conquer” to fight unions in Wisconsin. NYT: “…each time [Walker won in Wisconsin] he took more than a third of the votes from union households. He was able to do this by making ‘labor’ seem like someone else — even to union members — and pitting one faction against another …”
Republican divide in Kansas sinks tax plan. AP: “Kansas faced the prospect of deep funding cuts to schools, prisons and other programs after the Republican-controlled House on Thursday rejected a plan supported by Gov. Sam Brownback that would have raised sales and cigarette taxes … In past years, legislators had backed Mr. Brownback, a Republican, by slashing personal income taxes … a possible downgrade of the state’s bond ratings [may happen] if the budget is not balanced by Monday.”

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