Thursday, November 10, 2016

Progressive Breakfast: Why Trump Won

MORNING MESSAGE

Robert Borosage: Why Trump Won
2016 should be a caution to Democrats. The Obama coalition works only if Democrats don’t throw white working people out of the boat. Obama won majorities of those who were not college graduates; Clinton did not ... Obama’s coalition will continue to grow in number. But Democrats better learn how to sing from Bernie Sanders’ gospel to have any hope of becoming a majority party again.

People Rise Up

Anti-Trump protests sweep country. NYT: "The crowds swelled as the night went on but remained mostly peaceful. Protests were reported in cities as diverse as Dallas and Oakland and included marches in Boston; Chicago; Portland, Ore.; Seattle and Washington and at college campuses in California, Massachusetts and Pennsylvania ... In New York, crowds converged at Trump Tower, on Fifth Avenue at 56th Street in Midtown Manhattan, where the president-elect lives."
"Liberal groups vow all-out war with Trump" reports McClatchy: "Rhea Suh, head of the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington [said] 'If Donald Trump thinks he can launch a big polluter assault on our air, waters, wildlife and lands, we’ll build a wall of opposition to stop him,' ... 'If you do not reverse course and instead endeavor to make these campaign promises a reality, you will have to contend with the full firepower of the ACLU at every step,' [Executive Director Anthony] Romero said ... People’s Action, based in Obama’s hometown of Chicago, launched a frontal attack ... LeeAnn Hall and George Goehl said[,] ''We commit ourselves to unwavering resistance to Trump and his agenda.'"
"Obamacare defenders vow 'total war'." Politico: "'We've got the battle of our lifetime ahead of us,' Ron Pollack, executive director of advocacy group Families USA ... options are limited. They have enough votes to block a total repeal of the law on Day One of a Trump administration. But they can’t block Republicans from passing targeted legislation in the coming months, and Trump — like Obama before him — can pick up a pen as early as Jan. 20 and use executive powers to block, change, or put on hold key elements of the massive six-year-old legislation.
People of color fear for their futures. NYT: "Some Latinos already felt threatened on Wednesday and feared that Mr. Trump would pursue his mass deportation pledge, tearing apart their families and communities. Black voters anticipated an era under Mr. Trump in which intolerance would become acceptable. And Muslims worried that they would be branded as terrorists because of their beliefs."
Democrats must rebuild. NYT: "... it was the Democrats who found themselves bereft of high-profile leaders ... Mr. Sanders is 75, Mr. Biden is 73 and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, who also declined to run for president with Mrs. Clinton in the race, is 67..."

What Will Trump Do?

What Trump will actually do is a mystery. NYT: "In Donald J. Trump’s private conversations and public commentary, one guiding principle shines through: The world is a zero-sum place ... Yet he also is the ultimate pragmatist, perfectly willing to dispense with seemingly core beliefs in return for negotiating advantage ... His economic policy might best be described as 'Big Government Conservatism,' a mix of major tax cuts, mostly for businesses, and a massive infrastructure program ... So far, those proposals do not add up to a coherent strategy."

Will infrastructure-repatriation deal be first? Politico: "Trump, Ryan and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell will be, roughly, in the same ideological space in reforming the tax code. Trump is a former donor to and acquaintance of Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.), the future Democratic leader who has worked with Ryan on tax reform. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) wants an infrastructure package -- and has already said so. The infrastructure package actually spooks Republicans more than it spooks Democrats."
Trump could scrap Obama policies. Politico: "On the chopping block will be regulations to address climate change ... to implement Obamacare ... and to rein in Wall Street ... Gone, too will be President Barack Obama’s executive actions protecting the children of undocumented immigrants and tightening restrictions on gun sales."
Sanders reaches out. Politico quotes: "To the degree that Mr. Trump is serious about pursuing policies that improve the lives of working families in this country, I and other progressives are prepared to work with him ... To the degree that he pursues racist, sexist, xenophobic and anti-environment policies, we will vigorously oppose him."
Paul Ryan appears safe, for now. Roll Call: "A chorus of House Republicans on Wednesday came out in support of Speaker Paul D. Ryan remaining in leadership, signaling that a movement to oust him is not on the horizon ... The big unanswered question is whether Trump can get over his grudge with Ryan."
Japan PM to meet Trump next week. NYT: "Mr. Abe is seeking to gauge the sincerity of Mr. Trump’s campaign rhetoric on Japan. As a candidate, he repeatedly excoriated the country, along with other American allies, for not paying what he called its fair share to support American military bases ... Mr. Abe will also probably want to discuss the Trans-Pacific Partnership ..."
NYT's Linda Greenhouse previews the next Supreme Court: "A Trump nominee will now take the place of the late Justice Antonin Scalia, leaving Chief Justice Roberts more or less in charge of the Roberts court ... [the Chief Justice] needs to make it clear that the Roberts court is not a tool of partisan politics ... Does the chief justice understand this? The signs are not encouraging. "
"Donald Trump Will Face Unprecedented Ethics Decisions" reports Time: "..., Trump would be legally allowed to do far more than simply brag about his newest buildings or branding efforts from the White House. 'There would be nothing that would preclude him from making a decision on trade or otherwise that could impact, for better or worse, those interests,' says Don Fox, former general counsel and acting director of the Office of Government Ethics. 'It simply would not be a violation of law.' ... There are two main legal issues he would have to avoid, ethics experts say: traditional prosecution under government bribery laws and a little-noticed provision in the Constitution known as the emoluments clause, which prohibits U.S. officials from taking money from foreign sources without the consent of Congress."

How Big Was Trump's Win?

Northern whites gave White House to Trump. NYT: "Mr. Trump’s coalition comprised not just staunchly conservative Republicans in the South and West. They were joined by millions of voters in the onetime heartlands of 20th-century liberal populism — the Upper and Lower Midwest — where white Americans without a college degree voted decisively to reject the more diverse, educated and cosmopolitan Democratic Party of the 21st century ... Mr. Trump won his biggest margins among middle-income white voters, according to exit polls, a revolt not only of the white working class but of the country’s vast white middle class."
Not new voters, notes The Atlantic's Ronald Brownstein: "Those are the older and blue-collar whites, evangelical Christians, and non-urban voters who in polls have consistently expressed both the most economic pessimism and cultural unease about a changing America ... the exits showed the white share of the total vote continuing its decades-long decline as America diversifies. Instead, those who did vote stampeded to Trump in insurmountable numbers."
"Not a realignment, says W. Post's Larry Bartels: "...the national election outcome was consistent with forecasts based on 'fundamental' factors like incumbency and the state of the economy ... it would be a mistake to read too much into Trump’s victory, remarkable as it was — and remarkable as his presidency may well be."

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