Wednesday, March 16, 2016

Progressive Breakfast: The Campaigns Remain Contested

MORNING MESSAGE

Clinton’s base – older Democratic voters – is voting for continuity. They favor continuing Obama’s policies, not changing them. They favor experience and electability over honesty and shared values ... Sanders continues to capture the future by large margins. Millennials under 29 flock to his banner; a majority of voters under 45 support him ... a party whose leaders are selling more of the same may well find it hard to inspire young voters and independents who are looking for a very new deal.
“LISTEN LIBERAL”: Join Thomas Frank Friday in Washington as he discusses his new book, “Listen Liberal: Whatever Happened to the Party of the People?” Sign up here for the event, to be held at noon at the AFL-CIO headquarters. To learn more about the book and for tour dates outside of Washington, go to the “Listen Liberal” book page.

CLINTON EXPANDS LEAD

Clinton takes at least four states. CNN: “Hillary Clinton’s southern firewall — and support among minorities — held strong in Florida, where she won 73% of the 51% of voters who were non-white. In Ohio, Clinton won big among black voters (68% support) and voters who felt that international trade costs U.S. jobs (53%). Clinton won among registered Democrats Tuesday, including 56% in Missouri and Illinois. But Bernie Sanders continued his pattern of winning strong support among independents…”
Clinton adjusted her message. W. Post: “After Clinton’s loss in Michigan called her economic message into question, her campaign moved to retool her stance on trade by strengthening her opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership and emphasizing support for manufacturing in her jobs plan. In Ohio, Clinton took specific aim at elements of the pending trade package seen as harmful to the auto and steel industries.”
Clinton pivots to Trump. Politico: “After noting that she now has a 300-delegate lead – which will make it essentially impossible for Sanders to catch up given the rules of the Democratic process — Clinton turned her attention to [Trump] … ‘When we hear a candidate for president call for rounding up 12 million immigrants, banning all Muslims from entering the United States,’ Clinton said, discussing Trump’s most outrageous policies, ‘when he embraces torture, that doesn’t make him strong, it makes him wrong.'”

BERNIE SEES WINS AHEAD

Bernie moves on to Arizona. AP: “…the Vermont Senator delivered an hour-long version of his stump speech to an enthusiastic crowd of several thousand inside the Phoenix convention center. He urged supporters to flood the polls March 22…”
Sanders campaign see favorable terrain ahead. Politico: “…they were … looking ahead to Arizona … and upcoming caucuses in Idaho, Utah, Alaska and Washington. But Sanders campaign aides say they’ll be able to keep Clinton from reaching the 2,383 delegate magic number she’d need to clinch the nomination at the convention and, by being close enough, convince the superdelegates to switch…”
EPI’s Robert Scott assesses the trade records of Sanders and Clinton in new video: “[Sanders] has been out front in criticizing agreements like NAFTA and the TPP … [Clinton] has generally tended to favor the kinds of deals that have generated lost jobs and downward pressure on wages of most working Americans.”

OHIO DENIES TRUMP SWEEP

Republicans may face brokered convention. Time: “…his failure to deliver a knockout blow in Ohio gives him an uphill fight to secure the 1,237 delegates required … In order to sew up the nomination before Cleveland, Trump has to win roughly 55% of remaining delegates. The majority of the remaining 21 contests award delegates proportionally or by congressional district, with only six winner-take-all contests left.”
Trump warns of “riots” on CNN. Reuters quotes: “I don’t think you can say that we don’t get it automatically. I think you’d have riots. I think you’d have riots. I’m representing many, many millions of people.”
Rubio quits. Politico: “…when Rubio stumbled, as all candidates do, there was no infrastructure to catch him, no field program to lift his support, no base to fall back upon.”
TNR’s Brian Beutler explores why the GOP took Trump over Rubio: “It’s easy to forget that Rubio’s campaign floundered until he adopted a dark, conspiratorial message in January … This should have alerted Rubio to something that’s been clear to many of us on the outside of Republican politics, looking in: that the rise of Donald Trump is overwhelmingly a function of dynamics within the Republican Party, not of some greater national decadence … a fostered, apocalyptic denialism and defeatism of which Trump is both the apotheosis and the promised remedy.”

SCOTUS NOM TODAY

“I’ve made my decision” Obama says. NPR: “The [Supreme Court] announcement is slated to be made at 11 a.m. ET, when the president will speak from the Rose Garden at the White House.”

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