We've got your snow cleanup stories and more this morning with Nicolle Wallace, Sam Stein, Mark Halperin, Mike Allen, Walter Isaacson, Robert Costa, Steve Kornacki, Lynn Hicks, Mayor Muriel Bowser, Sen. Rand Paul, Gov. Chris Christie, Fmr. Gov. Rick Perry, Sara Eisen and in Taji, Japan, there are unfavorable conditions for the fishermen means Blue Cove Day. Activity on quayside, transfer maybe imminent. And, yes, two transfers made.2016-25-01 7:28am #dolphinproject #tweet4dolphins Blizzard is over on East Coast, but Monday travel could be daunting. Icy roads, snow-covered runways and blocked train tracks threaten to snarl morning travel in many East Coast cities on Monday, days after a massive blizzard clobbered the region. The bottom line: Just because the snow's stopped falling doesn't mean it's back to business as usual. "Every state that picked up some snowfall is going to be looking at refreezing every night," CNN meteorologist Tom Sater said. The possibility meant officials warned of dangers Sunday even as they trumpeted the progress their cities were making at cleaning up after the storm. "We will see continued slick and dangerous roadways, so continue to stay off the road," Washington Mayor Muriel Bowser told reporters. Baltimore Mayor Stephanie Rawlings-Blake said her city had experienced a "historic snow event." "I'm asking for residents to continue to be patient. ... A record amount of snow must be removed," she said. The Long Island Rail Road, which officials said sustained significant damage during the storm, planned to reopen seven of its 12 branches in time for Monday morning's commute. The other five branches -- representing about 20% of traffic in the rail system -- remain closed for repairs. Limited flights were set to resume at airports Monday in Washington, where officials said crews were working to dig out runways after the storm.
The storm killed at least 15 people, grounded thousands of flights and shut down travel in many of the nation's largest cities. There were signs of some relief Sunday as residents shoveled snows and cleaned up flooding debris beneath blue skies. But officials said there was more work to be done, and schools and government offices in many areas were set to remain shuttered. As cleanup continues, U.S. federal government offices in the Washington area will be closed on Monday, officials said. So will government offices in Maryland, the state's governor said. "Tomorrow morning, conditions will be icy and dangerous," Gov. Larry Hogan said in a written statement. "By closing state offices tomorrow, crews can carry on with their work to clear state roads." Record snowfalls One of the hardest-hit locales was Glengary, West Virginia, a small town about 85 miles northwest of Washington, which preliminary figures show received 42 inches of snow. Other notable snowfall totals came at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport (31 inches), Baltimore/Washington International Thurgood Marshall Airport (29.2 inches, a record), Washington Dulles International Airport (28 inches), Newark, New Jersey (28 inches), New York's Central Park (26.8 inches, the second-highest total since 1869) and Philadelphia (22 inches). But snow wasn't the only product of the storm. Dewey Beach, Delaware, and Virginia's Langley Air Force Base both reported 75-mph winds, just over hurricane force. Major flooding In New Jersey, some residents said they were reeling from flooding that was worse than devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy. "There was much more water. ... Everybody was affected. It was bad," said Keith Laudeman, who owns a restaurant in Cape May, New Jersey. Jason Pellegrini says he saw the water rushing in from his home in Sea Isle City, New Jersey. "I heard commotion out my window, and I looked and I saw the raging water," he said. "It came in to the low-lying areas, and it rushed fast." In North Wildwood, the high tide was much higher than anticipated and caught many of the town's 5,000 year-round residents off guard -- with flooding levels that exceeded those during Sandy, said Patrick Rosenello, the city's mayor. "We had a lot of evacuations, a lot of people who had stayed in their homes not anticipating this, needing to be rescued," Rosenello said. Pummeled At least 15 people have died as a result of the storm -- six in North Carolina, three in Virginia, one in Kentucky, three in New York City, one in Maryland and one in Washington. Officials have cited a higher collective death toll, but CNN has not been able to confirm the individual reports and it's unclear if all reports of death are related to weather. In Washington, chief medical examiner Dr. Roger Mitchell Jr. said an 82-year-old man who died while shoveling snow was the city's first storm fatality. "The message is, surrounding shoveling, to take breaks, to make sure that you hydrate, to make sure that you're checking on your neighbors. Volunteer to shovel their walkway," he told reporters. Officials in New York and Baltimore also said there were reports of people dying while shoveling snow. New York Mayor Bill de Blasio said the blizzard will almost certainly rank among New York City's "top five snowstorms" in recorded history in terms of snow accumulation. Traffic a mess Hundreds of motorists faced the storm's wrath stuck on highways. Road accidents Friday night caused a seven-mile backup involving around 500 vehicles on the Pennsylvania Turnpike, a state police spokeswoman said. The massive backup, which left some motorists stranded for almost 24 hours, spurred an apology Sunday from the turnpike's chairman. "I can promise you all that there will be a thorough analysis of the events that led up to this incident as well as a review of what occurred over the course of the last two and a half days," Pennsylvania Turnpike Commission Chairman Sean Logan said in a written statement. "I want to be certain that we do a better job the next time something like this occurs, and that we can learn from this tragedy." In central Kentucky, some drivers were stranded along a 35-mile stretch of Interstate 75 for as long as 19 hours, from Friday afternoon to Saturday morning. And as many as 200 vehicles were stuck on Interstate 77 in West Virginia, the Charleston Gazette-Mail reported. Power outages and flight cancellations Thousands of customers were without power as a result of the storm, most in North Carolina. And more than 8,000 flights were canceled on Saturday and Sunday, according to flight-tracking service FlightAware.com. Mass transit services in Washington and Baltimore were suspended for the weekend, and some Amtrak service to and from the East Coast was canceled or truncated. Broadway, where Saturday shows were canceled as the blizzard raged, saw its electricity restored and all shows scheduled for Sunday will be performed as planned, according to The Broadway League. "The show must go on," League president Charlotte St. Martin said in a statement.
CNN's Catherine E. Shoichet, Joshua Berlinger, Eliott C. McLaughlin, Mariano Castillo, Ashley Fantz, Dana Ford, Poppy Harlow, Melissa Gray, Jason Hanna, Greg Botelho, AnneClaire Stapleton, Ray Sanchez, Ben Brumfield, Ralph Ellis, Rene Marsh, Dave Hennen and Sean Morris and contributed to this report. In A POLITICO Exclusive: Obama on Iowa, Clinton, Sanders and 2016. In an Oval Office interview for POLITICO's Off Message podcast, the president offers his most expansive comments yet on the race to succeed him in the White House.
Barack Obama, that prematurely gray elder statesman, is laboring mightily to remain neutral during Hillary Clinton’s battle with Bernie Sanders in Iowa, the state that cemented his political legend and secured his path to the presidency. But in a candid 40-minute interview for POLITICO’s Off Message podcast as the first flakes of the blizzard fell outside the Oval Office, he couldn’t hide his obvious affection for Clinton or his implicit feeling that she, not Sanders, best understands the unpalatably pragmatic demands of a presidency he likens to the world’s most challenging walk-and-chew-gum exercise. “[The] one thing everybody understands is that this job right here, you don’t have the luxury of just focusing on one thing,” a relaxed and reflective Obama told me in his most expansive discussion of the 2016 race to date. Iowa isn’t just a state on the map for Obama. It’s the birthplace of his hope-and-change phenomenon, “the most satisfying political period in my career,” he says – “what politics should be” – and a bittersweet reminder of how far from the garden he’s gotten after seven bruising years in the White House. The caucuses have a fierce-urgency-of-now quality as Obama reckons with the end of his presidency – the kickoff of a process of choosing a Democratic successor he hopes can secure his as-yet unsecured legacy, to keep Donald Trump or Ted Cruz or somebody else from undoing much of what he has done. And he was convinced Clinton was that candidate, prior to the emergence of Sanders, friends and associates have told me over the last 18 months. “Bernie came in with the luxury of being a complete long shot and just letting loose,” he said. “I think Hillary came in with the both privilege – and burden – of being perceived as the frontrunner… You’re always looking at the bright, shiny object that people haven’t seen before – that's a disadvantage to her.”
Even as he spoke wistfully of his 80-plus cold-pizza and crowded-van days in Iowa eight years ago, Obama seemed to embrace Clinton’s 2008 closing Iowa argument as much as his own, adopting her contention that inspiration without experience won’t cut it. He repeatedly praised Clinton without reservation while offering more tempered praise to the surging Sanders, whom he sees as a principled outsider seeking to change “terms of the debate that were set by Ronald Reagan 30 years ago.” To some extent, he’s returning Clinton’s favor: The former secretary of state has lavished praise on Obama on the debate stage and in appearances throughout Iowa, where he remains immensely popular among the hardcore progressives who turn out for the labor-intensive caucuses. Her refrain on the trail these days in Waterloo, Ames, Davenport: “I don't think he gets the credit he deserves.” Obama didn’t utter an unkind word about Sanders, who has been respectfully critical of his administration’s reluctance to prosecute Wall Street executives and his decision to abandon a single-payer health care system as politically impractical. But he was kinder to Clinton. When I asked Obama if he thought Sanders needed to expand his horizons, if he was too much a one-issue candidate too narrowly focused on income inequality, he didn’t dispute the assertion. Gesturing to the Resolute Desk, with its spread-winged eagle seal, first brought into the Oval Office by John F. Kennedy, Obama said of Sanders: “Well, I don't want to play political consultant, because obviously what he’s doing is working. I will say that the longer you go in the process, the more you’re going to have to pass a series of hurdles that the voters are going to put in front of you.” Then he added: “As you’ll recall, I was sitting at my desk there just a little over a week ago… writing my State of the Union speech, and somebody walks in and says, ‘A couple of our sailors wandered into Iranian waters’” – and here he stopped to chuckle in disbelief – “that's maybe a dramatic example, but not an unusual example of the job.” And he gently suggested that his own '08 message might be a pretty good mantle for his would-be successors to don. “My bet is that the candidate who can project hope still is the candidate who the American people, over the long term, will gravitate towards,” he said. The last three weeks have been like a wicked ’08 flashback for a Clinton campaign that was intent on learning from its mistakes in Iowa. Sanders, preaching a simple message of fighting economic inequality and Wall Street, has been gaining steadily on Clinton – whose stump speech sounds like one of her husband’s more discursive and overstuffed State of the Union laundry lists. The high school and college kids are flocking to Sanders, while Clinton is counting – sound familiar? – on women over the age of 50 as the core of her caucus support. As Sanders gains on her, she’s gone negative, and the media has revived the familiar “Hillary attacks” theme, even if the Vermont senator is giving as good as he gets. When I asked Obama if Clinton is facing “unfair scrutiny” this time around, his answer was a clipped “yes” – and he even admitted a tinge of regret that his own campaign had been so hard on her eight years ago. But when I asked him if Sanders reminded him of himself in 2008, he quickly shot me down: “I don’t think that's true.” I spoke to a half-dozen current and former top Obama advisers in preparation for the podcast, and to a person, they described the boss as in a nostalgic, pensive frame of mind as he approaches his final year in office. He still keeps in touch with many architects of the 2008 Iowa strategy – 2008 campaign manager David Plouffe oversaw a blockbuster state operation that doubled the typical number of caucus-goers from about 120,000 to an unheard-of 240,000. The bonds are deep – he reached out to some of the old crew last month to tell them he was thinking about them on the eighth anniversary of his historic victory – and he need only watch the daily briefing for another Iowa reminder: White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest played the same role, in Obama’s Des Moines headquarters, during the caucuses. He was clearly thinking of sweet Iowa when addressing the sour faces in the well of the House for the last time during last month’s State of the Union address. “I know some of you are antsy to get back to Iowa. I've been there. I'll be shaking hands afterwards if you want some tips,” he said to the collective 2016 field, flashing a toothy grin. “He’s in a really good place,” said David Axelrod, his top message strategist in 2008 and 2012. “He is taking stock.” For a president facing an ugly, asymmetrical world, and not especially prone to sentimentality, Iowa has a field-of-dreams quality, a thought oasis he’s been visiting after seven-plus years of compromise and combat, especially as the caucuses approach. “That [Iowa] spirit was true. And the fact that we were a part of that I continue to be really proud of,” he told me. But he also saw it as a proving ground that prepped him for the national stage. During his first big rally in the state, in February 2007, he committed a truly awful gaffe, telling a crowd in Ames that “3,000 lives” of American service members had been “wasted” in Iraq. “I wasn’t necessarily ready for Broadway,” he conceded. “[M]y answers were too long, I was too wonkish, wasn’t crisp in my presentation. And that was true for a while… Everything in retrospect always looks great... [But] I remember [the] endless van rides through cornfields, hungry, tired, going to my sixth event, and making phone calls to either raise money or to talk to some caucus-goer who didn’t really want to talk to me but my team said I had to call.” Like the high school girl who hung up on him after declaring, “I’m in a yearbook meeting,” he recalled. But the Obama-Clinton race in Iowa wasn’t simply a matter of hard work and spreading his optimistic vision of the future; it was a bitter political fight. Obama hammered away at the notion that the New York senator was on the wrong side of generational change, and his team successfully convinced reporters that every Clinton campaign swipe was an underhanded personal attack – something he’s less than proud of in retrospect. “The truth is, in 2007 and 2008, sometimes my supporters and my staff I think got too huffy about what were legitimate questions she was raising,” he admitted. “And there were times where I think the media probably was a little unfair to her and tilted a little my way in calling her out.” In fact, he said, Clinton “had a tougher job throughout that primary than I did.” “She had to do everything that I had to do, except, like Ginger Rogers, backwards in heels,” he said. “She had to wake up earlier than I did because she had to get her hair done. She had to, you know, handle all the expectations that were placed on her.” “Had things gone a little bit different in some states or if the sequence of primaries and caucuses been a little different,” Obama added, “she could have easily won.” But he also offered a surprisingly blunt assessment of Clinton’s weaknesses. She is better in “small groups” than big ones, he remarked, and he agreed that her first campaign appearances showed her to be “rusty” – comparing them to his God-awful first debate of the 2012 campaign. “[S]he’s extraordinarily experienced – and, you know, wicked smart and knows every policy inside and out – [and] sometimes [that] could make her more cautious, and her campaign more prose than poetry,” he told me. This, from a president who has been governing in prose, especially during his second term. In fact, Obama’s experiences in office have brought him around to Clinton’s hardheaded view of the presidency, first forged during her eight years as first lady. “I think that what Hillary presents is a recognition that translating values into governance and delivering the goods is ultimately the job of politics, making a real-life difference to people in their day-to-day lives,” he said, echoing the very critique Clinton makes of Sanders. Obama gives less ground when it comes to his own performance as president – repeating the message, from last month’s State of the Union address, that he’s “very proud of what we've gotten done over these last seven years” and that his “singular regret… is the fact that our body politic has become more polarized,” a situation he attributes to the actions of others – hyper-partisanship on the GOP side, gerrymandering, the media, super PACs. But he will admit to mistakes in projecting his own message – and neglecting many of the communications tools that served him so effectively during the 2008 campaign – particularly using stagecraft and adapting rapidly to changes in social media. “[Y]ou know what, some of the presidency is performance and I’ve been criticized – probably, in some cases, fairly – for not effectively promoting my ideas,” he said. “I've gained a greater appreciation for the need to tailor a communications strategy to a new era in which people are not just watching three network news shows,” he added. “I wish that I had adapted the White House communications operations and my own ways of presenting things to reach more people more effectively, sooner.”
Obama is of two minds about 2016, people close to him say: He’s intensely interested in ensuring a Democrat wins, and is keeping close tabs on the race – to keep the barbarians from the gates. But like many liberals his age, he’s averting eyes from a Donald Trump free-for-all he finds depressing and distracting. “You think about it: When I ran against John McCain, John McCain and I had real differences, sharp differences, but John McCain didn’t deny climate science,” he said. “John McCain didn’t call for banning Muslims from the United States… [The] Republican vision has moved not just to the right, but has moved to a place that is unrecognizable.” When I ask him if he’s been watching the Republican debates, must-see-TV for most politicians, he shakes his head and tugs restlessly on a cuffed shirtsleeve. “I don't. But, look, I, as you know, didn’t like participating in many of these debates,” he says with a laugh. “And so if I didn’t enjoy watching my own, I certainly am not going to watch the Republican debates.” It’s an open secret inside the White House that Obama was relieved to see Vice President Joe Biden pass on a 2016 presidential run – though he did nothing to prod his friend in either direction. Obama has remained above the fray in the Clinton-Sanders duel, but people close to him say he believes his onetime opponent is better equipped to defeat the Republicans. “He’s not panicked by Sanders,” said one former top aide, “but he’s clearly thumbing the scale for Hillary.” Many of Clinton’s senior staff are Obama White House alums – and some of her top campaign brass, including Obama’s former Communications Director Jen Palmieri and ex-counselor John Podesta, have met with the president in recent months; Obama’s longtime pollster Joel Benenson is Clinton’s top political strategist, and the campaign’s policy director Jake Sullivan, another administration veteran, remains close to his counterparts in the West Wing, according to multiple sources in both camps. Obama told me he has spoken to both Clinton and Sanders about 2016, albeit in vague-ish ways. “We’ve had a conversation broadly about the importance of a Democrat winning [with Clinton], and I've had conversation with Bernie, about issues that he’s interested in or concerned about,” he said. “I have not been trying to kibitz and stick my nose into every aspect of their strategy.” And while he’s not exactly waiting for the phone to ring, he said he’s not too busy to offer pro tips on a topic he knows better than just about anybody – Iowa. “Look, if anybody asks me for my opinion on something I'm happy to offer it,” he said. Super Bowl 50 Match Up Is Set: The Denver Broncos play the North Carolina Panthers! Bets stopped on mixed doubles match due to unusual wager volume.A sports gambling website suspended betting on a mixed doubles match Sunday at the Australian Open because a large amount of money came in on the obscure match. According to Marco Blume, the head of the sportsbook at Pinnacle Sports, nearly all the money came in for the pairing of Andrea Hlavackova and Lukasz Kubot against Lara Arruabarrena and David Marrero, an indication that the match might be fixed. Report: Tennis ignores match-fixing evidence A Buzzfeed-BBC report alleges that top-ranked players are involved in match fixing at major tournaments, and authorities are ignoring the evidence. "We saw a small number of people placing a large amount of money," Blume told The New York Times. Blume said Pinnacle had seen no such betting behavior around any other match at this Australian Open. He said suspicious activity on the match began about 13 hours ahead of its scheduled start, and Pinnacle proceeded to cut off betting. Blume then contacted police in Melbourne's province to detail the possible irregularities. "In context, these matches are rather small," Blume said. "That means that any aggressive betting behavior is very easy to detect on our side." Blume said the Pinnacle sportsbook hadn't encountered such betting behavior on any other match at the 2016 Australian Open. The action came on the heels of reports last week that the International Tennis Federation had failed to deal with 16 players who were repeatedly flagged on suspicion that they had thrown matches. A spokeswoman for the ITF said the organization had not been notified of any suspicious activity, and the Tennis Integrity Unit, the sport's internal watchdog, would be notified before the ITF. A representative for the Tennis Integrity Unit declined to comment on the mixed doubles match. The latest report came as a former top-200 tennis player from Australia, Nick Lindahl, pleaded guilty in a Sydney court to a match-fixing charge after prosecutors say he informed two people he would intentionally lose a match at a lower-tier tournament in 2013 so they could bet against him. Hlavackova and Kubot won Sunday's match 6-0, 6-3 in a sweep that featured a first set that lasted just 20 minutes. Hlavackova and Kubot said they were questioned by the Tennis Integrity Unit about the match but did not disclose details. They said they prefer to keep it confidential and said it was the first time they have been questioned on such a matter. Both said they played 100 percent and did not think their opponents threw the match. They said they were too focused on their own game to notice whether Marrero had the knee injury he cited as a reason for the poor performance. Arruabarrena and Marrero dismissed the idea that match fixing was involved. Kubot said he didn't think players should be named without proof of match fixing. "If you don't have 100 percent proof of the player, you should not mention the name," he said. Kubot said he felt bad for Lleyton Hewitt, whose name came up without evidence in reports. Kubot is the 28th-ranked doubles player on the men's tour, and Hlavackova is 20th among women. Arruabarrena is the 33rd-ranked doubles player on the women's tour, and Marrero is ranked 32nd among men. Neither player was happy about being questioned about a match they won. "It's not very comfortable to think that we didn't win the match on our terms because we played very well and we won,'' Hlavackova said. "So it's not comfortable to be questioned if somebody else was not playing 100 percent.'' Jamie Murray, who is also playing mixed doubles, was asked what he made of the report. "I don't know. I guess if it happened it's a shame especially with all the stuff that came out last week but I don't really know anything more about it than you guys do,'' he said. "If things are happening that shouldn't be happening, you need to find out how to stamp out that behavior.'' He said he didn't think fixing was any more likely in mixed doubles than singles. He said that determining which is more important -- singles or doubles -- is difficult. "It's like asking a singles guy if doubles is more important," Murray said. "Yes, sometimes, but if he's doing well in singles, then in doubles he's not going to sweat for three hours when you have to play quarterfinals in Grand Slam singles.'' Information from ESPN's Jim Caple and The Associated Press was used in this report. The Iowa Caucus is about a week away and (Michael) Bloomberg may jump into the race.
Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former New York mayor, is taking steps toward an independent bid for the White House and he has plans to spend at least $1 billion of his fortune on the effort. Before Bloomberg had said that he had no plans to enter the 2016 presidential race. Despite his vast resources, Bloomberg would face tough odds if he chose to enter the race. not the first time that Bloomberg has flirted with a presidential run and no independent presidential candidate has ever won in history. Also, Donald Trump says, 'I Could Stand on 5th Avenue and ‘Shoot Somebody, and I Wouldn’t Lose Any Voters’. During a rally at Dordt College in Sioux Center, Iowa today, Donald Trump bragged about how loyal his supporters are in a way that might strike you as kind of disturbing. “They say I have the most loyal people,” Trump said, “where I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose any voters, okay?” A bunch of people in the crowd laughed..
Basically, Trump understands he has enough people who will eagerly swallow anything he says that whatever he does genuinely does not matter. Poll: Donald Trump gained 15 points on Ted Cruz in Iowa in two weeks. Earlier this month, Fox News released a poll showing Ted Cruz leading Donald Trump by four points. The two had a sizable lead over everyone else in the state, and the poll was confirming what others were showing: Cruz had an advantage. On Sunday, Fox released another Iowa poll, with substantially different results. Now, Trump is up by 11 points, a 15-point swing in the two weeks between surveys. This poll, too, mirrors the recent trend: Trump has regained the advantage. It's still a surprising development. Trump's gained a lot, across the board, while most of his competitors have slipped. Cruz is still over-performing with conservatives and tea partiers (meaning that his support among those groups is 11 and seven points higher than his overall support), but Trump gained 11 and 17 points with those groups over the past two weeks. Cruz's support among the groups fell. Rick Perry Endorses Ted Cruz for GOP Nomination.Rick Perry, the former governor of Texas and a two-time GOP presidential candidate, has endorsed Ted Cruz's 2016 White House bid.
"Of those individuals who have a chance to win the Republican primary, at this juncture, from my perspective, Ted Cruz is by far the most consistent conservative in that crowd," Perry said in an interview with POLITICO. "And that appears to be down to two people." Perry, who dropped out of the 2016 race last September, backed his fellow Texan just one week before the Iowa caucuses, the first nominating contest of the presidential campaign and one in which Cruz is locked in a close matchup with real estate mogul Donald Trump. The former Texas governor was popular with evangelicals — a key component of Cruz's coalition — during both of his White House campaigns. He was an early critic of Trump, calling the GOP frontrunner a "cancer on conservatism" and blasting his plans for border security as unrealistic and superficial.
Perry was considered an early frontrunner during the 2012 presidential contest but quickly lost traction after stumbles, particularly regarding immigration policy. He failed to rise above a handful of points in public polling during his 2016 reprise bid.
So what's going on? This is the same polling firm and the same methodology. But the voter pool is slightly different.
Two weeks ago, the percentage of respondents saying they would "definitely" go out and caucus on Feb. 1 was 59 percent. In this new poll, that dropped to 54 percent, meaning a 10-point swing toward those who would say they will "probably" go to the caucus. Two weeks ago, Trump trailed Cruz by six points among those who would probably vote. Now he leads with that group by 15 — more than his overall lead against Cruz.
But that's risky for him. As we've noted, self-reporting of whether people will get to the polls is not always accurate and tends to depend on past voting behavior more than anything. In the new Fox poll, Trump gets 34 percent of Iowans, but 43 percent of those who will be going to caucus for the first time. Perhaps they will. But people who haven't voted before are a lot less likely to vote than people who vote all the time, for perhaps obvious reasons.
Again, Trump's gains are across the board, but he's doing much better with a group of voters that seems less likely to vote. He could certainly win Iowa by an 11-point margin, but that depends on his people turning out — and on his having an operation to encourage them to do so (which the New York Timesreports he doesn't). In other words, if the election were held tomorrow, the actual results would probably be somewhere in between these two polls, with Trump not doing as well against Cruz as it may appear.
But the election isn't tomorrow. As we've noted, the 2012 caucus winner, Rick Santorum, was still polling under 10 percent eight days before the caucus that year. The story of this new poll is that Iowa has changed. And over the next eight days, it will change more.
Where we stood 8 days before Iowa in the last two cycles. Winners are in darker colors.
Fox polls: Trump ahead in Iowa, New Hampshire. Donald Trump has a strong lead over Ted Cruz in Iowa with about a week left before the first nomination contest on Feb. 1, according to a Fox News poll. The poll of Iowa voters shows Trump with 34 percent among likely Republican caucus-goers, an 11-point bump from two weeks ago. Cruz is now at 23 percent, slightly down from 27 percent in the last poll. The poll also shows that among “very” conservative voters, there’s a more even split between Cruz and Trump, who received 34 percent and 33 percent of that vote, respectively. Cruz had an 18-point advantage over Trump in the last poll conducted by Fox News. In New Hampshire, Trump has more than twice the support of Cruz, the next closest candidate. The Fox News poll has Trump at 31 percent and Cruz at 14 percent. Marco Rubio follows with 13 percent. The polls, conducted Jan. 18-21, were done over the phone with live interviewers. Each included 801 registered voters in the state and had margins of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points. They follow a Fox News national poll released two days ago. That, too, showed Trump leading the field as the start of voting draws near. Trump received 34 percent in that poll, while Cruz got 20 percent, Rubio 11 percent, and Ben Carson 8 percent. The national poll was conducted over the same time period and via the same method, but interviewed 1,009 registered voters and had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
“We’ve got a big choice to make,” Clinton said Sunday. “It’s exciting.” (NBC’s “Meet the Press”)
Hillary Clinton says despite what you may have heard, her 2016 presidential campaign won’t be a repeat of 2008. On NBC’s "Meet the Press” on Sunday, Clinton dismissed criticism that six-figure speech fees she was paid by big banks like Goldman Sachs following her tenure as secretary of state make her vulnerable to the special interests of Wall Street — a point her rival, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, has made repeatedly. “Look, I gave speeches to a wide array of groups, from health care groups to auto dealers and many, many more,” Clinton said. “And I think what they were interested in — because what we talked about was the world, coming off of four years as secretary of state in a complicated world, people were interested in what I saw, what I thought, they asked questions about matters that were on their minds.” Clinton suggested she was booked by those who wanted to know about her role in the raid that killed Osama bin Laden. “[There was] a lot of interest in the bin Laden raid, how such a tough decision was made and what I advised the president,” she said. “Meet the Press” host Chuck Todd asked Clinton if she thought those institutions like Goldman Sachs that paid her might expect something in return. “Absolutely not,” Clinton replied. “You know, first of all, I was a senator from New York. I took them on when I was senator. I took on the carried interest loophole. I took on what was happening in the mortgage markets. I was talking about that in 2006. They know exactly where I stand.” Clinton also insisted she isn’t concerned about the ongoing FBI investigation into her use of a private email server as secretary of state. “I’m not concerned because I know what the facts are,“ she said. "I never sent or received any material marked classified.” The Democratic frontrunner doesn’t believe the FBI investigation is a cloud hanging over her candidacy. "I cannot control what the Republicans leak and what they are contending,” she said. “And I thought it was interesting, Chuck — as a political observer you’ll understand why — you know back a couple of months ago, [House Majority Leader] Kevin McCarthy spilled the beans that the Benghazi investigation was all about bringing me down, something that I suspected, but I went ahead, testified for 11 hours, answered all their questions and even they admitted there was nothing new.” Clinton also addressed the report that former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg would consider launching an independent presidential bid should she lose the Democratic nomination to Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, who is polling neck and neck with Clinton in Iowa and leading her in New Hampshire. "The way I read what he said is if I didn’t get the nomination, he might consider it,” Clinton said. “Well, I’m going to relieve him of that and get the nomination so he doesn’t have to.” And Clinton laughed off the suggestion by some political observers that her 2016 presidential campaign lacks enthusiasm just as it did in 2008, when she lost in the Democratic primary to Barack Obama.
“I can only react to what I’m doing, feeling, getting responses from people,” she said. “I feel really great that we have the level of enthusiasm that we do. And we also have a really good team on the ground that’s been working for months to make sure it’s not here today, gone tomorrow.”
Hillary Clinton Laughs When Asked if She Will Release Transcripts of Her Goldman Sachs Speeches
After Hillary Clinton spoke at a town hall in Manchester, New Hampshire, on Friday, I asked her if she would release the transcripts of her paid speeches to Goldman Sachs. She laughed and turned away.
Clinton has recently been on the defensive about the speaking fees she and her husband have collected. Those fees total over $125 million since 2001.
Her rival Democratic presidential candidate, Bernie Sanders, has raised concerns in particular over the $675,000 she made from Goldman Sachs, an investment bank that has regularly used its influence with government officials to win favorable policies.
Watch the video:
During one of her paid speeches to Goldman Sachs, Clinton reportedly reassured the crowd and told them that banker-bashing was unproductive and foolish, according to a Politico report based on accounts offered by several attendees.
On Friday, Clinton was asked by New Hampshire Public Radio how the “average person should view the hefty speaking fees?”
“I spoke to a wide array of groups who wanted to hear what I thought about the world coming off of my time as secretary of state,” Clinton said, defending her decision to make money from speaking fees. “I happen to think we need more conversation about what’s going on in the world.”
“I think groups that want to talk and ask questions and hear about that are actually trying to educate themselves because we’re living in a really complicated world.”
Listen here:
When asked by the Des Moines Register on Thursday if she regretted her decision to make money from speaking to various interest groups, Clinton compared herself to President Barack Obama, noting that significant campaign donations from Wall Street did not stop him from passing the Dodd-Frank reform law.
But the Obama administration did in fact go easy on Wall Street by refusing to criminally prosecute the major financial institutions responsible for the 2008 economic crisis. And Dodd-Frank, many critics say, does not go far enough in preventing systemic risk.
What’s more, though Obama fundraised for his presidential campaigns from Wall Street, he never enriched himself personally as the Clintons have done.
Obama’s ethics disclosures show that he made the vast majority of his income from royalties and advance money for his two books, Dreams From My Father and The Audacity of Hope.
Top photo: Lloyd Blankfein, chairman & CEO of Goldman Sachs, and Hillary Clinton during the 2014 Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting.
Poll: Sanders edges Clinton in Iowa, leads big in New Hampshire. One week before the caucuses, Iowa is effectively a tossup, as Bernie Sanders has taken a one-point edge over Hillary Clinton after trailinglast month. That puts Sanders in position to potentially win both early states as he continues to hold a very large lead in New Hampshire. Clinton maintains her long-standing advantage in South Carolina in this latest round of the CBS News Battleground Tracker.
There is a big gap between the two on who better understands what voters are feeling, and to whom each would listen as president. In Iowa, 91 percent of Democratic voters believe Sanders would pick regular people over big donors. But a majority -- 57 percent -- of Democrats feel that Hillary Clinton would do whatbig donors want instead of what regular people want, if forced to choose.
The race has seen more critical back-and-forth between the two in recent weeks, and Democratic voters marginally see Clinton's critiques are the more unfair of the two. Twenty-eight percent of Iowa Democrats feel Clinton's critiques on Sanders have been unfair, while 16 percent say the same of Sanders' critiques on Clinton.
Sanders is more widely seen in Iowa and New Hampshire as the candidate who "gets it" -- that is, understands how people feel. Eighty-five percent say that of Sanders in Iowa and an enormous 95 percent say that of him in New Hampshire. Sixty-five percent describe Clinton that way in Iowa and 60 percent in New Hampshire -- majorities, but nowhere near the numbers Sanders put up.
Turnout and organizing are always critical especially in caucus events, where relatively few people participate. Most Sanders and Clinton supporters say they know where their caucus location is already.
Clinton and Sanders supporters in Iowa are equally as enthusiastic about their candidate, but Sanders has the enthusiasm advantage in New Hampshire. Democrats see a stark contrast in the approaches Clinton and Sanders have to their policy proposals. More see Clinton as a realist, but they see Sanders as an idealist.
Clinton's attacks on Sanders' record on gun laws and his criticism of her ties to Wall Street may be having their desired effect. In Iowa, Clinton is seen as better able to handle gun policy and terrorism (her biggest strength), while Sanders has an advantage on Wall Street reform as well as taxes. The two are nearly tied on the economy and health care. In New Hampshire, where Sanders leads Clinton, he is seen as better able to handle all the issues asked about except terrorism and gun policy.
Iowa Democratic voters say when they caucus next week, they will be most satisfied about having the opportunity to give Democrats a good chance to win in November. This is followed by getting progressive things done. Supporting a historic candidacy isn't much of a priority for Iowa Democrats, even for Clinton supporters.
Sanders backers are just as likely to say getting progressive things done is a priority as helping the Democrats win in November. On the other hand, three in four Clinton backers say having a chance to help the Democratic candidate win in November is their top priority. In New Hampshire, the top motivator for Sanders supporters is having the chance to get progressive things accomplished.
Methodology and complete results can be found below and here.
The CBS News 2016 Battleground Tracker is a panel study based on interviews conducted on the internet of registered voters in Florida, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Texas. The poll was conducted by YouGov, an online polling organization.
The first wave was fielded between September 3-10, 2015, with 4860 respondents, and the second wave fieldwork was completed between October 15-22, 2015, with 3952 respondents and the third wave between November 15-19, 2015. The fourth wave was fielded between December 13-17, 2015. The majority of the 2nd-4th wave respondents are recontacted panelists. The first 4 waves consist of interviews in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina only. The fifth wave added new interviews in Florida, Georgia, and Texas, and was completed between January 17-21, 2016.
Respondents were selected from YouGovs and two other online panels. These are "opt-in" panels which are open for anyone to join. However, YouGov also randomly selected persons from voter registration lists who had previously voted in primary elections and contacted them by phone. A total of 22 517 registered voters were contacted by phone and the YouGov sample includes 1753 phone recruits.
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Regardless of it all happening on this busy Monday morning, please stay in touch.
Barack Obama, that prematurely gray elder statesman, is laboring mightily to remain neutral during Hillary Clinton’s battle with Bernie Sanders in Iowa, the state that cemented his political legend and secured his path to the presidency.
Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire former New York mayor, is taking steps toward an independent bid for the White House and he has plans to spend at least $1 billion of his fortune on the effort. Before Bloomberg had said that he had no plans to enter the 2016 presidential race. Despite his vast resources, Bloomberg would face tough odds if he chose to enter the race. not the first time that Bloomberg has flirted with a presidential run and no independent presidential candidate has ever won in history.
"Of those individuals who have a chance to win the Republican primary, at this juncture, from my perspective, Ted Cruz is by far the most consistent conservative in that crowd," Perry said in an interview with POLITICO. "And that appears to be down to two people."
Hillary Clinton says despite what you may have heard, her 2016 presidential campaign won’t be a repeat of 2008.
Past Frontrunners
