Joining today's show are Katty Kay, Howard Dean, Eugene Robinson, Chris Jansing, Mike Barnicle, Cam Simpson, Fmr. Amb. Chris Hill, Sen. Ron Johnson, Mark Halperin, Steve Kornacki, Kasie Hunt, Mohamed Fahmy, Peggy Noonan, Sam Stein, Ron Fournier, Sara Eisen, Charles DeSantis and more.
It was Blue in The Cove off the coast in Taji, Japan. There were no Dolphins killed or captured yesterday / this AM. And, I am not sure why this occurred, but it seems as if a Turkish military shot down Russian fighter jet over Syria. Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet over Syria Tuesday saying the Su-24 jet's pilots violated Turkish airspace and failed to heed multiple warnings to leave. There is also a new Quinnipiac University Poll for the GOP and with the people in the Iowa Caucus.
And, Sen. Ron Johnson states that it was a historic blunder leaving Iraq when the actual historic blunder was us going into Iraq in the first place. The GOP and the people in it of course are so linear in their thought process. They make a point right up to that time when and where it affects them. It is age old what they do with the media. But again, it may have been a bad move leaving Iraq even though it was a George Bush Jr. policy that did it (Obama merely carried t out), it was of historic blunder to go into Iraq to fight that war in a country that had nothing to do with the attacked on 9/11 in 2001. The GOP and the people in it are trying tio blame the Obama administration on leaving in Iraq when fundamentally not only should we have never been in there in the first place, it was also George Bush Jr. that set up that law to leave Iraq. It was done before Obama was even elected as the POTUS.
It was Blue in The Cove off the coast in Taji, Japan. There were no Dolphins killed or captured yesterday / this AM. And, I am not sure why this occurred, but it seems as if a Turkish military shot down Russian fighter jet over Syria. Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet over Syria Tuesday saying the Su-24 jet's pilots violated Turkish airspace and failed to heed multiple warnings to leave. There is also a new Quinnipiac University Poll for the GOP and with the people in the Iowa Caucus.
And, Sen. Ron Johnson states that it was a historic blunder leaving Iraq when the actual historic blunder was us going into Iraq in the first place. The GOP and the people in it of course are so linear in their thought process. They make a point right up to that time when and where it affects them. It is age old what they do with the media. But again, it may have been a bad move leaving Iraq even though it was a George Bush Jr. policy that did it (Obama merely carried t out), it was of historic blunder to go into Iraq to fight that war in a country that had nothing to do with the attacked on 9/11 in 2001. The GOP and the people in it are trying tio blame the Obama administration on leaving in Iraq when fundamentally not only should we have never been in there in the first place, it was also George Bush Jr. that set up that law to leave Iraq. It was done before Obama was even elected as the POTUS.
A U.S. official told CBS News that radar tracking confirmed the Russian plane was in Turkish airspace, adding, "it was close," but it did cross the border.
Russia flatly denied that its warplane had crossed into Turkish airspace.
"We are looking into the circumstances of the crash of the Russian jet. The Ministry of Defense would like to stress that the plane was over the Syrian territory throughout the flight," the Russian ministry said in a statement.
The Turkish Defense Ministry was quoted by Reuters as saying the Russian jet was warned 10 times within five minutes to leave Turkish airspace before it was shot down. Turkish officials said the Su-24 was warned as it flew over Yaylidag, in Turkey's southern Hatay province, and the Ministry of Defense released radar images purportedly showing the Ru-24's flightpath over the southern tip of Turkey's Hatay province, which juts down into northern Syria.
The Russian jet crashed down into Syrian territory. Amateur videos showed it plummeting to the earth with flames trailing behind it before it disappeared behind a hill. Two parachutes were seen floating down to the ground, also; evidence that the two pilots from the jet had ejected.
CBS News correspondent Charlie D'Agata says unverified video posted by Syrian rebels from the area showed what appeared to be a lifeless Russian crewman. The rebels in the video said he was dead, though it was unclear, if true, whether he died in the initial strike or whether he was killed in crossfire on the ground.
D'Agata said Russian helicopters were then seen flying over the area of the crash in an apparent search and rescue operation for their lost crewmen.
The Su-24 crashed down in part of northwest Syria where Turkish-backed Free Syrian Army and Turkmen rebels hold territory.
Turkey said the plane was shot down by Turkish F-16 fighter jets, but the Russians said ground-based artillery hit the Su-24. It was not immediately possible to reconcile the varying reports.
The shootdown of a Russian jet highlights the tense situation in the skies over Syria, where a growing list of nations -- with often divergent interests -- are carrying out airstrikes.
Turkey and NATO warned in early October -- after Russia said one of its warplanes had crossed into Turkish airspace near the Syrian border by "mistake," in addition to a couple other infringments by Russian planes -- that the infractions were "very serious," even dangerous.
A senior U.S. defense official told CBS News at that time that the Russian violation did not appear to be accidental, as claimed by Moscow.
The U.S. moved half a dozen more F-15C fighter jets to a base in southern Turkey after the early October incidents, in an effort to shore-up a key NATO ally
The Turkish government has been a staunch opponent of Syrian President Bashar Assad's regime since the uprising against his family's decades-long rule first began in 2011. Russia, on the other hand, remains one of Assad's most valuable allies.
Russia dramatically upped its stake in the Syrian war at the end of Sepetember, unleashing a wave of airstrikes against rebel groups that were putting significant pressure on Assad's beleagured military. Moscow initially claimed it was focusing its attacks on Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) militants, but it was clear the real focus was other groups pushing toward Assad's stronghold in Damascus.
Russian planes have targeted ISIS fighters and infrastructure more frequently in recent weeks, and the group's apparent role in smuggling a bomb onto a Russian passenger plane that was blown up over Egypt on Oct. 31 has focused Moscow's anger on the Sunni Islamic extremist group.
Nevertheless, the area where the Russian jet was downed, in the Turkmen Mountains region of the costal Lattakia Province, where Russia's military force in Syria is based, has seen fierce fighting in recent days.
Assad's forces hard begun making advances in the aea -- under cover of Russian airstrikes -- against rebel groups including the FSA and al Qaeda affiliate the al-Nusra Front.
U.S.-led coalition strikes have focused almost exclusively on ISIS, and have been given a recent boost by a more active French role in the campaign following the Paris attacks blamed on the group that killed 130 people.
CBS News senior national security correspondent David Martin reported Monday that a couple of the most recent airstrikes carried out by the U.S. destroyed almost 500 tanker trucks that were being used by ISIS to smuggle oil and sell it on the black market.
By one estimate, Martin said U.S. strikes had destroyed about half the trucks ISIS uses to rake in an estimated $1 million each day in revenue.
I thought we were all on the same side trying to fight against ISIS.
France uses its newly-deployed carrier, Russia, U.S. strike ISIS. France launched air strikes against ISIS targets in Iraq on Monday in the first sorties from the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier, newly deployed in the eastern Mediterranean, France’s armed forces chief of staff said.
“We carried out strikes in Ramadi and Mosul in support of ground forces that were pushing against Daesh troops,” General Pierre de Villiers said aboard the carrier, referring to ISIS with its Arabic acronym.
Meanwhile, Moscow said on Monday its warplanes had hit 472 targets in war-torn Syria in the past two days, including tanker trucks and oil infrastructure in territory controlled by ISIS.
“In 141 combat sorties in the past two days, warplanes of the Russian airforce struck 472 terrorist targets in the provinces of Aleppo, Damascus, Idlib, Latakia, Hama, Homs, Raqa and Deir Ezzor,” the Russian defence ministry said in a statement.
The military said that the latest strikes had destroyed 80 tanker trucks near ISIS stronghold of Raqa, as well as a large oil storage tank and an oil refinery south of the city.
Fuel reserves some 50 kilometers (31 miles) north of Deir Ezzor were also destroyed in the strikes, the defence ministry said.
Russia hunting ISIS oil
The Russian defence ministry said last week that it was “hunting” oil transporters in a bid to cut ISIS financing and claimed that in the past five days some 1,000 fuel trucks had been destroyed.
The Russian military claimed that “terrorists” had suffered “serious losses” in Saraqib, a city in the northwestern province of Idlib province, and in the town of Qalaat al-Madiq in the Hama province.
President Vladimir Putin last week ordered the intensification of Moscow’s bombing campaign in Syria after confirming that the Russian passenger plane that crashed in Egypt’s Sinai last month, killing all 224 people on board, had been brought down by a bomb.
Russia says its air strikes target ISIS and other “terrorists,” but the West has previously said that Russia is targeting moderate opposition factions fighting the Moscow-backed regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
The defence ministry on Monday dismissed as “unfounded” the United States’ claim its strikes were not targeting ISIS. “As always these (claims) are unfounded, without concrete details or facts, citing unnamed sources,” the defence ministry said.
Assad said in an interview published Sunday that government troops were advancing on “nearly every front” thanks to the Russian air strikes, with Syrian state media reporting the regime had taken control over Maheen and Hawareen in the southeast of Homs province.
U.S., allies also target ISIS oil facility
The United States and its allies conducted additional strikes against ISIS over the weekend, including two in Syria that destroyed nearly 300 ISIS vehicles and an oil facility, the coalition leading the operations said.
On Saturday, two strikes near Dayr Az Zawr and Al Hasaka destroyed 283 Islamic State vehicles and one of the militant group’s crude oil collection points, according to a coalition statement released on Monday.
The two were in addition to nine strikes in Syria on Saturday reported earlier by the U.S.-led task force.
On Sunday, the coalition conducted 19 strikes against ISIS near 11 Iraqi cities and 14 near five Syrian cities, the statement said.
Four of the strikes near Hasaka, Syria, hit three ISIS tactical units and four structures, while four other strikes near Ayn Isa hit four other units, among other targets, according to the coalition.
In Iraq, five strikes near Ramadi destroyed two ISIS tactical units, an improvised explosive device, fighting positions and other targets, while three strikes near Falluja struck another tactical unit, it added.
Hollande meets Obama seeking to ramp up Islamic State fight. French President Francois Hollande flies into Washington on Tuesday seeking support for his newly declared war on the Islamic State group after the Paris attacks, while the US announced a worldwide travel alert for its citizens.
Back in Europe, the manhunt continued for Belgian-born Salah Abdeslam, a key suspect in the Paris attacks that killed 130 people, while Brussels entered a fourth day of lockdown amid fears of an "imminent" attack.
French police said they were analysing a suspected suicide belt similar to those used in the Paris attacks, found without its detonator in a dustbin in the Montrouge suburb of the capital.
Telephone data placed Abdeslam in the area on the night of November 13.
Brussels will stay on its highest level of alert at least until next Monday, with Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel warning that the threat "remains serious and imminent", though schools and the Metro will reopen Wednesday.
The security measures include the patrols citywide of armed soldiers and police, something a counter-terrorism expert says has not seen in at least two decades.
Belgian authorities have charged a fourth person in connection with the bloodshed in Paris, which was claimed by the Islamic State group.
A new complication hit the delicate diplomacy around the conflict in Syria after Russia confirmed one of its fighter jets had been shot down by Turkey at the Syrian border.
"Presumably as a result of firing, an Su-24 plane of the Russian forces crashed in the Syrian Arab Republic," Russian news agencies quoted the defence ministry as saying.
Turkish reports said two pilots had ejected and one captured by Syrian rebels.
- Shuttle diplomacy -
Washington and Paris have stepped up their fight against IS, with France launching its first strikes from an aircraft carrier in the Mediterranean and the United States calling for more international cooperation against the jihadist group.
Underlining heightened global fears of attacks after Islamists killed scores in Mali, Turkey, Lebanon and Nigeria in recent weeks, the US government issued a worldwide travel alert warning American citizens of "increased terrorist threats".
"Current information suggests that ISIL (another acronym for Islamic State), Al-Qaeda, Boko Haram and other terrorist groups continue to plan terrorist attacks in multiple regions," said a State Department travel advisory.
Hollande's trip to Washington is part of a frantic week of shuttle diplomacy by the French leader as he tries to rally global support for increased strikes against IS.
He will hold talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Paris on Wednesday and with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on Thursday, before receiving Chinese Premier Xi Jinping in the French capital on Sunday.
The UN Security Council last week authorised "all necessary measures" to fight IS.
- Lockdown -
In Brussels, an eerie atmosphere hung over the city with soldiers in camouflage patrolling everywhere from railway stations to EU institutions.
In the normally bustling historic Grand Place, a few bars and restaurants were open for business but they were struggling to find customers.
In downtown Brussels, the only real activity was deliverymen offloading crates for near-empty shops as builders hammered together stalls for a Christmas market meant to open on Friday.
"My grandson said we should up sticks and move to the south of the Yser river, just like in World War I (after the Germans invaded)," said Michel, a retired man from a Dutch-speaking suburb.
"We have to be careful, but life has to go on -- otherwise we're finished," said his wife Patricia.
The army and armed police will remain on the streets in coming days, the Belgian prime minister said, but schools and the metro system would reopen from Wednesday.
The European Union and NATO, which both have their headquarters in Brussels, said they would bolster security and urged non-essential staff to work from home.
The alert will be reviewed again on Monday.
Meanwhile the federal prosecutor's office announced that a man who was arrested during a police operation in Belgium late Sunday has been charged with involvement in the Paris attacks, the fourth so far.
Mohammed Amri, 27, and Hamza Attou, 20, were charged on Monday on suspicion of helping Abdeslam escape to Brussels after the attacks, while a third unnamed person faces charges of aiding him when he reached the city.
Abdeslam's brother Mohamed on Sunday told Belgian television he thought Salah had decided at the very last moment not to go through with his attack mission.
Only 23 percent of Americans believe Obama has a clear plan to take out ISIS. 66 Percent Of Americans Don’t Believe Obama Has Clear Plan Dealing With ISIS. A new poll finds that a majority of Americans don’t think President Barack Obama has a clear plan to defeat the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria.
The latest CBS News Poll finds that 66 percent of Americans believe that Obama doesn’t have a direction on what to do to take out ISIS – a new high.
Only 23 percent of Americans believe Obama has a clear plan to take out ISIS.
Among political lines, 88 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of Democrats say the president doesn’t have a clear plan, compared to 7 percent of the GOP and 40 percent of liberals say Obama does.
Fifty percent of Americans back sending U.S. ground troops into Iraq and Syria to battle the terror group. However, 42 percent oppose sending ground troops to the Mideast to take on ISIS.
The poll also finds that Americans are essentially split on whether Syrian refugees should be allowed into the U.S. Forty-seven percent say they should be allowed after going through a screening process, while 50 percent believe they shouldn’t be allowed in the U.S.
However, a majority believe Syrian refugees need to go through a stricter security clearance process. Seventy-eight percent favored the stricter screening, while only 15 percent said it was not necessary.
More than half of U.S. states said they do not want to shelter Syrian refugees.
CBS News polled 1,205 people between Nov. 19-22.
The Urban Legends Behind Trump's 9/11 Cheering Story. Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump has been characteristically unapologetic about his claim that “thousands and thousands” of New Jersey residents cheered as the World Trade Center fell on Sept. 11, 2001, even though contemporaneous news reports don’t support it.
And his insistence on that recollection, which has no basis in fact, shows just how expert he is at roping together conspiracy theories, urban legends, and rumors that lurk on the fringes of the Internet and bringing them into the mainstream.
Rumors of groups of people celebrating the attacks in “tailgate-style parties” popped up in national publications like The Washington Post and Associated Press, but were never confirmed as true. A highly publicized video of Muslims cheering and flashing victory signs on the day of the attack was shot in the Israeli-occupied West Bank of Palestine, not in the Garden State. A video of American Muslims celebrating the terrorist attack doesn’t appear to exist and none of the unconfirmed reports of such an incident comes anywhere near the scale that Trump describes.
Here are four possible sources for Trump’s mistaken recollection.
The five “Dancing Israelis”
On the afternoon of Sept. 11, 2001, five young men were stopped by FBI agents while crossing the George Washington Bridge. As The New York Times and many other outlets reported at the time, they were carrying $4,000 in cash, box cutters, and, in one man’s case, two passports. The group had been spotted snapping photos of the burning Twin Towers from the roof of their van by onlookers on the Jersey side of the bridge, who had contacted authorities. The Times reported that FBI agents found images of the smoldering buildings on their cell phones. In one image, one of the men, Sivan Kurzberg, held up a lit lighter with the ruins of the towers in the background.
As it turned out, the five men were Israeli Jews who worked for Urban Moving Systems, a household moving company that operated in New York and New Jersey. None of them had any connection whatsoever to the day’s attacks. They were held for 27 days at Brooklyn’s Metropolitan Detention Center before being deported for overstaying their visas.
The Times pointed out that contemporary news reports left “the wide impression that the authorities had detained a group of suspicious men taking pictures or rooting for the terrorists from the New Jersey side of the bridge.” Those reports also were exaggerated and perpetuated on fringe blogs that took to calling the men the "dancing Israelis."
Rooftop parties
Several news reports in the aftermath of the attacks made vague reference to “rooftop parties” in New Jersey where people were allegedly celebrating the catastrophic event. The allegations recall the general state of paranoia and Islamophobia that became a hallmark of post-9/11 life.
A Washington Post article from Sept. 18, 2001 mentioned an investigation into people throwing “tailgate-style parties” in New Jersey in the hours after the attacks. The article said law enforcement "detained and questioned a number of people who were allegedly seen celebrating the attacks."
Trump drew attention to the Washington Post’s 2001 story on Monday, asking the newspaper for “an apology” on Twitter.
Via @washingtonpost 9/18/01. I want an apology! Many people have tweeted that I am right! http://wapo.st/1R1siFz
The newspaper reported Monday that the journalists who wrote the piece cannot recall if those allegations were ever confirmed.
An Associated Press story from Sept. 17, 2001 described “rumors of rooftop celebrations of the attack by Muslims” in Jersey City as “unfounded.”
A gathering of teens outside a library
New Jersey philosophy professor Irfan Khawaja and sociologist Gary Alan Fine collaborated on an essay investigating the impact of the rumors about Arab Americans’ reaction to the 9/11 attacks. Though they painstakingly searched for domestic incidents of people celebrating, they could point to only one lukewarm example.
“There is some evidence that a few Arab-American adolescents briefly relieved their political frustration in front of a library in largely Arab South Paterson, New Jersey, in a way that might be defined as ‘celebrating,’” Khajawa and Fine wrote.
“No evidence exists of an organized or sustained celebration of the terrorist attacks,” they continued.
Celebrations abroad
Though there appears to be no video record of American Muslims reveling on Sept. 11, 2001, footage taken by Reuters journalists of Palestinians laughing and cheering in the streets of East Jerusalem was widely circulated at the time. Individual Palestinians cheered the attack because the US provides millions in military aid to Israel, which occupies territory in the West Bank and Gaza Strip.
“Thousands of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip cheered the attack, distributing candy and firing weapons in a show of glee over what they described as a retaliatory blow against U.S. cooperation with Israel,” read an article in The Washington Post. “Palestinians in refugee camps in Lebanon fired weapons into the air in celebration.”
The overwhelming majority of Arab nations and citizens condemned the attacks, holding candlelight vigils and issuing condolences to the victims.
Watch the Reuters footage, which aired on CNN, below:
How ISIS makes (and takes) money. The Islamic State in Iraq and Syria has crude, stomach-turning tactics when it comes to dealing with its enemy, but experts say that its moneymaking methods are highly sophisticated, especially for such a new terror group.
Here's a look at how ISIS has made (and taken) millions:
Oil production and smuggling
ISIS makes between $1 million and $2 million each day from oil sales, numerous sources tell CNN. The oil comes mostly from refineries and wells that ISIS controls in northern Iraq and northern Syria.
The militants smuggle oil into southern Turkey, for example, and sell it to people who desperately need it just to carry on some semblance of everyday life.
The United States-led coalition fighting ISIS has repeatedly targeted ISIS oil assets in an effort to, in part, damage this arm of the group's financial system.
ISIS is estimated to produce about 44,000 barrels a day in Syria and 4,000 barrels a day in Iraq, according to Foreign Policy. A Kurdish newspaper has published the names of people involved with ISIS and its oil enterprise, the magazine reported.
Some on the list were associated with oil smuggling under former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, Foreign Policy said, as were those associated with a Toyota branch in Irbil that sells ISIS trucks.
Through its oil operations, ISIS appears to be trying to establish a self-sufficient state in the "Sunni triangle" in west and north Iraq, said Luay al-Khatteeb, founder and director of the Iraq Energy Institute.
Today, ISIS controls approximately 6 million people in Iraq and Syria, he said, and "that is a lot of people who need fuel."
Ransoms from kidnappings
In 2012, the U.S. Treasury Department estimated that al Qaeda and its affiliates had accumulated $120 million from ransoms over the previous eight years.
ISIS was once aligned with al Qaeda. The two groups are thought to operate separately but share similarities.
A 2014 New York Times investigation found that since 2008, al Qaeda and its affiliates had received $125 million from ransoms, including $66 million in 2013.
A Swedish company reportedly paid $70,000 to save an employee whom ISIS abducted.
Though officials publicly deny paying ransoms, the French purportedly have a policy of negotiating with militant groups to free its citizens. ISIS kidnapped Nicolas Henin, Pierre Torres, Edouard Elias and Didier François, in 2013 in Syria. They were released in April 2014, CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen said in a report that asked whether paying ransoms is a wise strategy.
The United States has a policy of not doing that, and the recent executions of U.S. and other Western ISIS hostages have sparked debate over whether that should change. ISIS demanded hundreds of millions of dollars for American journalist James Foley, said Philip Balboni, the CEO of GlobalPost, the outlet for which Foley freelanced.
The terrorists also told the Japanese government to pay a $200 million ransom to free two Japanese citizens. Japan did not negotiate, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said. ISIS slaughtered the men.
Looting and selling stolen artifacts and antiquities
ISIS allows locals to dig at ancient sites as long as those people give ISIS a percentage of the monetary value of anything found, according to a September 2014 New York Times opinion piece written by three people who had recently returned from southern Turkey and interviewed people who live and work in ISIS-controlled territory.
ISIS' system of profiteering from antiquities thieving is very complicated, the three said, adding that for some areas along the Euphrates River, ISIS leaders encourage semiprofessional field crews to dig.
"ISIS has caused irreparable damage to Syria's cultural heritage," the writers said, and it's crucial that the digging and smuggling of antiquities be stopped because Syria's history is essentially part of its identity. Leaving some of the targeted heritage intact, they said, "will be critical in helping the people of Syria reconnect with the symbols that unite them across religious and political lines."
CNN has extensively reported on ISIS' destruction of some ancient and deeply meaningful sites in Iraq. Officials in Iraq have said ISIS has blown up shrines such as the tomb of Jonah.
Qais Hussain Rashid, director general of Iraqi museums, told CNN that ISIS militants "cut these reliefs and sell them to criminals and antique dealers." He gestured to an ornate carving that's thousands of years old. "Usually they cut off the head, leaving the legs, because the head is the valuable part."
As if pillaging weren't enough, ISIS simply damages fragile historical sites as if they were empty storefronts for the taking. Rashid said that ISIS has used the ancient ruined city of Hatra, or al-Hadr in Arabic, which dates back to the third century B.C., as a training ground, weapons depot and a place to murder prisoners.
'Taxes,' aka extortion
In 2014, ISIS gained control of large swaths of Iraq and Syria and set out to create civil and administrative entities as if it were a legitimate state. That is, after all, what the militants have claimed to be after -- a caliphate, or an Islamic state led by one person, a successor to the Prophet Mohammed.
States demand taxes. In ISIS-controlled areas, to get anything done -- or to survive -- the people pay a fee to the terror group. Businesses are taxed if they want to have essential things like electricity and security, experts say.
Drivers who want to move through a checkpoint must hand over cash. When it's used more and more, extortion can seem to a terrified and traumatized populace as a normal tax system, Joseph Thorndike, the director of Tax Analysts' Tax History Project, wrote in Forbes.
Stealing
Sometimes there's no pretense such as "taxing." ISIS has stolen money, too. In June 2014, the group raided several banks in Mosul and stole an estimated $500 million, though the full amount is unconfirmed, according to global intelligence firm Stratfor. In Syria, ISIS has seized control of oil facilities, taking over from rebel group al-Nusra, which didn't fight back.
Organs harvesting and sale?
The Iraqi ambassador to the United Nations caused a sensation this week when he said that bodies have been found mutilated, and openings have been carved out of the backs of the corpses. To Mohamed Alhakim, that indicated "some parts are missing."
He said it's possible that ISIS is harvesting and trafficking the organs of dead civilians.
There is tremendous skepticism about that, particularly considering how hard it would be to preserve organs in crude and unsanitary war environments.
Mark Lyall Grant, Britain's ambassador to the U.N., said there was no proof or evidence to support Alhakim's assertion.
Control of crops
Mouaz Moustafa, the executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force in Washington, told CNN that Raqqa, ISIS' de facto Syrian capital, is a kind of breadbasket. "They've got the cotton and the wheat." he said. The United States has targeted grain silos that ISIS controls.
A separate economy?
Last year, ISIS announced that its "Treasury Department" would start minting its own gold, silver and copper coins for its "Official Islamic State Financial System." It's not clear if this has any value. The move is "purely dedicated to God," ISIS declared, and will remove Muslims from the "global economic system that is based on satanic usury." Scott Bronstein and Drew Griffin contributed to this report.
Weapons, vehicles, employee salaries, propaganda videos, international travel — all of these things cost money. The recent terrorism attacks in Paris, which the Islamic State has claimed as its own work, suggest the terrorist organization hasn't been hurting for funding. David Cohen, the Treasury Department's Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, described the Islamic State last October as "probably the best-funded terrorist organization we have confronted" — deep pockets that have allowed the group to carry out deadly campaigns in Iraq, Syria and other countries.
But where does the Islamic State get all this money? It turns out that the group's methods of financing are very different from other prominent terrorist organizations, and much more difficult for the United States and other countries to shut down. Unlike many terrorist groups, which finance themselves mainly through wealthy donors, the Islamic State has used its control over a territory that is roughly the size of the U.K. and home to millions of people to develop diversified revenue channels that make it more resilient to U.S. offensives.
Normally, U.S. efforts to cut off funding for terrorists focus on tracking and stopping the flow of funds through the international system. Since 9/11, the United States, other countries, and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the United Nations have set up initiatives to detect and stop the flow of funds to terrorists. Leaders of the Group of 20 issued a statement on Sunday calling for better coordination to cut off funding channels to terrorist organizations, including exchanging information and freezing terrorist assets.
While the Treasury Department says these efforts have disrupted terrorist networks and saved lives, the Islamic State is a different animal. The Islamic State often avoids international finance, instead generating and spending funds within its own territory or immediately along its porous borders. "As for disrupting the revenue that ISIL generates from extortion and other local criminal activities, we recognize that Treasury’s tools are not particularly well-suited to the task," Cohen said in October, using another name for the Islamic State.
Estimates of the precise amount that the Islamic State earns from these activities tend to vary a lot and fluctuate over time, but what is certain is that the group is heavily diversified — meaning that if one funding source is shut down, the group can turn to others to generate revenue. Its main methods of generating money appear to be the sale of oil and antiquities, as well as taxation and extortion. And the group's financial resources have grown quickly as it has captured more territory and resources: According to estimates by the Rand Corporation, the Islamic State's total revenue rose from a little less than $1 million per month in late 2008 and early 2009 to perhaps $1 million to $3 million per day in 2014.
The Islamic State has other expenses, besides the cost of carrying out terrorist attacks and waging war. The terrorist group runs schools, a religious police force, food kitchens, an Islamic court system and even a Consumer Protection authority. It reportedly pays fighters roughly $400 a month, which is more than the Iraqi government offers some staff. The Islamic State sets and approves annual budgets, and it uses a chief financial officer-like figure to manage its accounts. It's also "fastidious" about documenting a return on investment for its funders. The Islamic State has established a central bank and even planned to mint its own currency — although in practice the group generally uses local currency, such as the Iraqi dinar and the Turkish lira.
Its control of an expansive territory obviously gives the Islamic State a valuable source of funding and flexibility. However, some U.S. officials have argued that having territory might also be seen as a weakness for the group. Maintaining a state of 8 million to 10 million people, waging war around its borders, and financing and carrying out international attacks are costly and difficult tasks. Without adequate funds to provide services to the local population, people in Islamic State territory might turn against the group, provoking a backlash that might end its grip on power, the thinking goes. In addition, reports from territory held by the group paint a picture of a brutal, two-tiered society, in which terrorists and their families live well and most others suffer. Under this pressure, the economy struggles to function, leaving the Islamic State with less and less to tax and to sell.
As other writers have pointed out, considered as a state ISIS looks quite poor, with a budget roughly on par with Afghanistan or the Democratic Republic of Congo. But considered as a terrorist organization, it looks wealthy and diversified. Below are 12 ways the Islamic State earns its revenue:
Oil: The oil fields that it has captured in Syria and Iraq have been a major source of funding for the terrorist group. Although it's relatively easy for the United States and other countries to prevent large-scale exports of oil from Islamic State territory, it's much harder to control the black market oil trade that reportedly flourishes along the porous borders of territory controlled by the Islamic State and surrounding countries.
The terrorist group mostly refines oil in small, mobile refineries, then ships it by truck to the Turkish border, where oil brokers and traders buy or barter for it. Because the trade is illegal, the oil is sold at a steep discount that can fluctuate wildly. Smugglers reportedly use mobile messaging services like Whatsapp to coordinate exchanges of products. Some traders may even have been selling oil from the Islamic State back to the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which the Islamic State is fighting in Syria, according to the Boston Globe.
Oil sales initially provided much of the Islamic State's revenue, but that has declined since the U.S. and others launched an extensive campaign of airstrikes on the group's oil and gas facilities, according to a report by the Congressional Research Service in April. By October 2014, the U.S. had reportedly destroyed about half of the group's refining capacity. The United States has also tried to identify and target oil brokers and encourage Turkey to clamp down on smuggling on its border.
The Islamic State's oil and gas revenue has also suffered because the engineers and other technical experts necessary to make these products have either fled the area or been killed. The terrorist group has been trying hard to recruit skilled people, as a recording by Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi calling for scientists, engineers, doctors and people with administrative expertise in July 2014 shows.
Taxation/extortion: Because the Islamic State controls an expansive territory, it can levy taxes on the people who live there. Some of these taxes are akin to those of a normal state, while others are more like extortion.
The Islamic State levies taxes on things including goods sold, utilities such as electricity and water (when they run, that is — in some areas, the electricity is only on for an hour a day), telecommunication companies, cash withdrawals from bank accounts, employee salaries, trucks entering Islamic State-controlled territory at checkpoints, looting archaeological sites and non-Muslim communities in general. A report by Thomson Reuters estimates that this system of extortion and taxation could generate as much as $360 million per year for the terrorist organization.
People in the area describe a kind of two-tiered system, where the Islamic State fighters and their families receive a variety of free services, including housing and medical care, while others are taxed heavily.
Kidnapping for ransom: A U.N. report from October 2014 cited estimates that the Islamic State had generated $35 million to $45 million in the previous year through kidnapping for ransom alone.
The United States and U.K. have tried to limit this financial channel by making it illegal to pay ransoms to terrorist organizations. The policy can seem very cold-hearted to the families that are affected by kidnapping, but officials maintain that it discourages terrorists from taking American and British hostages in the first place.
The Islamic State also generates a significant amount of revenue from kidnapping for ransom in its own communities, acts that tend to go unreported in the international press.
Wealthy donors: Although the Islamic State isn't primarily financed by wealthy donors the way that other terrorist organizations are, these contributions are still a substantial source of revenue.
Some estimates say that the Islamic State received up to $40 million in 2013-2014 from businessmen, wealthy families and other donors in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Many of these elite donors chose to fund the Islamic State because of fear and animosity for Iran and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. A report by the Brookings Institution in 2013 observed that donors in Kuwait were channeling hundreds of millions of dollars to various Syrian rebel groups.
After then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and others in the international community criticized these countries for financing terrorists, Saudi Arabia criminalized financial support in 2013 for the Islamic State, al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. The United Arab Emirates also appears to have made headway in limiting terrorist financing, according to Brookings. But other funding channels, including through unregistered charitable organizations that funnel money to the Islamic State, are still open.
Sales of antiquities: As the Islamic State has gained territory, it has taken control of museums, private collections and archaeological sites, such as the 9th century B.C. grand palace of Assyrian king Ashurnasirpal II. This has given the terrorist group an expansive supply of precious art and historical artifacts. Earlier this year, the group had at least 4,500 cultural sites under its control, according to the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force.
Some of these antiquities are destroyed, but others are resold for a profit, often flowing to markets in Turkey and Jordan, and from there to Europe and other advanced countries.
In November 2014, Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told a House committee that the sale of antiquities — both those stolen from collections and those that were newly excavated — was the group's second-large source of revenue after illicit oil sales. Other U.S. estimates put the total volume of trade in antiquities at more than $100 million a year.
Iraqi banks: The Treasury Department has estimated that the Islamic State gained at least half a billion dollars in cash by seizing branches of state-owned banks in northern and western Iraq in 2014.
"Before Mosul, their total cash and assets were $875 million. ... Afterward, with the money they robbed from banks and the value of the military supplies they looted, they could add another $1.5 billion to that," a U.S. intelligence officer told the Guardian.
Sales of other looted property: As the Islamic State captures territory in Iraq, it has acquired American vehicles, weapons and ammunition that can be used or resold. It has also reportedly resold construction equipment, generators, electric cables, cars, livestock, furniture and other goods.
Real estate: According to Niqash.org, a Web site published in partnership with a German nonprofit, the Islamic State has been generating cash by renting and auctioning off the properties of people who have been killed or fled newly occupied areas. "Property owned by individuals that the IS group considered their enemies — such as Iraqi army and police, government officials, politicians, judges and public prosecutors — has also been seized. And recently the group decided they should also own the property belonging to specialists in certain fields, such as doctors," the report says.
According to an analysis of Islamic State documents from Mosul, property confiscated by Islamic State can be rented to locals, become bases for Islamic State fighters or members, or be redeveloped as new structures.
Foreign fighters: Some foreign fighters who travel to join the Islamic State bring with them hard currency — though this appears to be a relatively limited funding source for the Islamic State.
Agriculture: Islamic State now controls some of the most fertile parts of Iraq and Syria, which produce a lot of wheat and barley. According to Thomson Reuters, if those crops were sold at a 50 percent discount on the black market, that could still generate more than $200 million in annual income for the Islamic State.
Other crops are simply taken from farmers — one Syrian refugee interviewed by The Washington Post said the Islamic State took 10 percent of her family's wheat crop. Some of the wheat is milled in Islamic State-owned flour mills, according to reports, and subsequently sold to local people and bakeries.
Phosphate, cement and sulfur: The area that Islamic State has captured is rich in natural resources including phosphate, cement and sulfur. Thomson Reuters estimates that phosphate resources might generate as much at $50 million a year for Islamic State at discounted prices, while sulfuric acid and phosphoric acid might generate $300 million.
Human trafficking: Many reports have documented Islamic State's practice of selling women and girls into marriage or sexual slavery, including many women from the Yazidi and Shia-Tukoman minorities.
Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Turvy Iowa GOP Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Keep Syrian Refugees Out, Republicans Say 5-1.
Iowa poll: Cruz, not Carson, now Trump's chief rival. Ted Cruz has replaced Ben Carson as Donald Trump's chief GOP presidential primary rival in Iowa.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday shows that Trump is the Republican presidential front-runner in the early voting state, with 25% support among GOP voters likely to participate in Iowa's February 1 caucuses.
But Cruz, the Texas senator, has moved into second place with 23% support -- double the backing he had just four weeks ago. Carson has fallen to third at 18% support, down 10 percentage points from his first-place perch a month ago when he led Trump, 28% to 20%.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is in fourth place with 13% support -- the only other candidate in double digits in Tuesday's poll.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul are tied for fifth place at 5% each and Carly Fiorina at 3%. No other candidate tops 2%.
"Last month, we said it was Dr. Ben Carson's turn in the spotlight. Today, the spotlight turns to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. The Iowa Republican Caucus has become a two-tiered contest: Businessman Donald Trump and neurosurgeon Ben Carson lead on the outsider track, and Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio lead among party insiders," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll, in a release announcing the results.
"The other candidates will need miraculous comebacks to crack the top tier with slightly more than two months before the voting begins," Brown said.
While Carson has seen his poll numbers drop, his favorability rating -- at 79% positive to 15% negative -- is still the best margin in the GOP field.
He's followed by Cruz (73% view him favorably while 15% see him unfavorably), Rubio (70% to 18%) and Trump (59% to 34%). Bush's rating -- he's seen favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 53% of likely Iowa Republican voters -- is underwater.
The pollsters found that 24% of likely Iowa GOP voters say the economy and jobs is the most important issue in deciding who they will support, followed by terrorism and foreign policy at 15%, the deficit at 11% and immigration at 10%.
Trump is by far the leader on the economy, judged best able to handle it by 49% of Republicans -- far ahead of Cruz's second-place showing at 11%.
And he's also seen as best able to handle terrorism, with 30% picking Trump, 20% preferring Cruz on the issue, 10% for Rubio and 7% for Bush.
The poll comes in the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks. About 88% of Iowa Republicans say they are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about the possibility of a similar attack in the United States.
And those Republicans broadly oppose allowing Syrian refugees into the United States, with 81% wanting those refugees kept out and 15% saying they should be let in. The voters surveyed support sending U.S. ground troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria, 73% to 22% opposed. By a margin of 83% to 9%, they say the United States and its allies are now losing to ISIS.
The poll surveyed 600 likely Iowa Republican caucus voters between November 16-22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Donald Trump gets 25 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants in a too-close-to- call race with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas who is at 23 percent, double his support from four weeks ago, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Dr. Ben Carson has 18 percent, with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 13 percent.
This compares to the results of an October 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Carson at 28 percent, with 20 percent for Trump, Rubio at 13 percent and Cruz at 10 percent.
One thing that hasn't changed is the poor showing for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who goes from 5 percent October 22 to 4 percent today.
Today, Sen. Rand Paul is at 5 percent, with Carly Fiorina at 3 percent. No other candidate tops 2 percent, with 2 percent undecided.
Among Iowa Republican Caucus-goers, 26 percent say they "would definitely not support" Bush, with 23 percent saying "no way" to Trump.
"Last month, we said it was Dr. Ben Carson's turn in the spotlight. Today, the spotlight turns to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. The Iowa Republican Caucus has become a two-tiered contest: Businessman Donald Trump and neurosurgeon Ben Carson lead on the outsider track, and Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio lead among party insiders," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"The other candidates will need miraculous comebacks to crack the top tier with slightly more than two months before the voting begins."
"Worth remembering, however, is that winning Iowa is no guarantee of success elsewhere. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the 2008 caucus and former Sen. Rick Santorum took the 2012 crown, yet both were quickly gone from those nomination fights as the primary calendar moved to larger states," Brown added.
Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants give Carson the best favorability rating, 79 - 15 percent, with 73 - 15 percent for Cruz, 70 - 18 percent for Rubio and 59 - 34 percent for Trump. Bush has a negative 39 - 53 percent favorability rating.
The economy and jobs are the most important issues in deciding who they will support, 24 percent of GOP caucus-goers say, with 15 percent each for terrorism and foreign policy, 11 percent for the federal deficit and 10 percent for immigration.
Trump can best handle the economy, 49 percent of Republicans say, with 11 percent picking Cruz. Carson, Rubio and Fiorina are the choice of 6 percent each.
Trump is tops handling terrorism, 30 percent of Republican Caucus-goers say, with 20 percent for Cruz, 10 percent for Rubio and 7 percent for Bush. Carson, Paul and New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie are at 5 percent each.
Cruz is best on foreign policy, 24 percent of Republicans say, with 18 percent for Trump, 15 percent for Rubio and 8 percent for Bush. Carson and Paul are at 6 percent each.
Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants oppose 81 - 15 percent allowing Syrian refugees into the U.S. and oppose 82 - 13 percent allowing them into Iowa.
Republicans support 73 - 22 percent sending U.S. ground troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria and say 83 - 9 percent that the U.S. and its allies are losing the fight against ISIS.
A total of 88 percent of Republicans are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about the possibility of a terrorist attack in the U.S. similar to the attack in Paris.
"One thing almost all Iowa Republicans agree upon is that Syrian refugees should not be allowed into the United States or into Iowa," Brown said.
From November 16 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 600 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
Here's a look at how ISIS has made (and taken) millions:
Oil production and smuggling
ISIS makes between $1 million and $2 million each day from oil sales, numerous sources tell CNN. The oil comes mostly from refineries and wells that ISIS controls in northern Iraq and northern Syria.
The militants smuggle oil into southern Turkey, for example, and sell it to people who desperately need it just to carry on some semblance of everyday life.
The United States-led coalition fighting ISIS has repeatedly targeted ISIS oil assets in an effort to, in part, damage this arm of the group's financial system.
ISIS is estimated to produce about 44,000 barrels a day in Syria and 4,000 barrels a day in Iraq, according to Foreign Policy. A Kurdish newspaper has published the names of people involved with ISIS and its oil enterprise, the magazine reported.
Some on the list were associated with oil smuggling under former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein, Foreign Policy said, as were those associated with a Toyota branch in Irbil that sells ISIS trucks.
Through its oil operations, ISIS appears to be trying to establish a self-sufficient state in the "Sunni triangle" in west and north Iraq, said Luay al-Khatteeb, founder and director of the Iraq Energy Institute.
Today, ISIS controls approximately 6 million people in Iraq and Syria, he said, and "that is a lot of people who need fuel."
Ransoms from kidnappings
In 2012, the U.S. Treasury Department estimated that al Qaeda and its affiliates had accumulated $120 million from ransoms over the previous eight years.
ISIS was once aligned with al Qaeda. The two groups are thought to operate separately but share similarities.
A 2014 New York Times investigation found that since 2008, al Qaeda and its affiliates had received $125 million from ransoms, including $66 million in 2013.
A Swedish company reportedly paid $70,000 to save an employee whom ISIS abducted.
Though officials publicly deny paying ransoms, the French purportedly have a policy of negotiating with militant groups to free its citizens. ISIS kidnapped Nicolas Henin, Pierre Torres, Edouard Elias and Didier François, in 2013 in Syria. They were released in April 2014, CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen said in a report that asked whether paying ransoms is a wise strategy.
The United States has a policy of not doing that, and the recent executions of U.S. and other Western ISIS hostages have sparked debate over whether that should change. ISIS demanded hundreds of millions of dollars for American journalist James Foley, said Philip Balboni, the CEO of GlobalPost, the outlet for which Foley freelanced.
The terrorists also told the Japanese government to pay a $200 million ransom to free two Japanese citizens. Japan did not negotiate, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga said. ISIS slaughtered the men.
Looting and selling stolen artifacts and antiquities
ISIS allows locals to dig at ancient sites as long as those people give ISIS a percentage of the monetary value of anything found, according to a September 2014 New York Times opinion piece written by three people who had recently returned from southern Turkey and interviewed people who live and work in ISIS-controlled territory.
ISIS' system of profiteering from antiquities thieving is very complicated, the three said, adding that for some areas along the Euphrates River, ISIS leaders encourage semiprofessional field crews to dig.
"ISIS has caused irreparable damage to Syria's cultural heritage," the writers said, and it's crucial that the digging and smuggling of antiquities be stopped because Syria's history is essentially part of its identity. Leaving some of the targeted heritage intact, they said, "will be critical in helping the people of Syria reconnect with the symbols that unite them across religious and political lines."
CNN has extensively reported on ISIS' destruction of some ancient and deeply meaningful sites in Iraq. Officials in Iraq have said ISIS has blown up shrines such as the tomb of Jonah.
Qais Hussain Rashid, director general of Iraqi museums, told CNN that ISIS militants "cut these reliefs and sell them to criminals and antique dealers." He gestured to an ornate carving that's thousands of years old. "Usually they cut off the head, leaving the legs, because the head is the valuable part."
As if pillaging weren't enough, ISIS simply damages fragile historical sites as if they were empty storefronts for the taking. Rashid said that ISIS has used the ancient ruined city of Hatra, or al-Hadr in Arabic, which dates back to the third century B.C., as a training ground, weapons depot and a place to murder prisoners.
'Taxes,' aka extortion
In 2014, ISIS gained control of large swaths of Iraq and Syria and set out to create civil and administrative entities as if it were a legitimate state. That is, after all, what the militants have claimed to be after -- a caliphate, or an Islamic state led by one person, a successor to the Prophet Mohammed.
States demand taxes. In ISIS-controlled areas, to get anything done -- or to survive -- the people pay a fee to the terror group. Businesses are taxed if they want to have essential things like electricity and security, experts say.
Drivers who want to move through a checkpoint must hand over cash. When it's used more and more, extortion can seem to a terrified and traumatized populace as a normal tax system, Joseph Thorndike, the director of Tax Analysts' Tax History Project, wrote in Forbes.
Stealing
Sometimes there's no pretense such as "taxing." ISIS has stolen money, too. In June 2014, the group raided several banks in Mosul and stole an estimated $500 million, though the full amount is unconfirmed, according to global intelligence firm Stratfor. In Syria, ISIS has seized control of oil facilities, taking over from rebel group al-Nusra, which didn't fight back.
Organs harvesting and sale?
The Iraqi ambassador to the United Nations caused a sensation this week when he said that bodies have been found mutilated, and openings have been carved out of the backs of the corpses. To Mohamed Alhakim, that indicated "some parts are missing."
He said it's possible that ISIS is harvesting and trafficking the organs of dead civilians.
There is tremendous skepticism about that, particularly considering how hard it would be to preserve organs in crude and unsanitary war environments.
Mark Lyall Grant, Britain's ambassador to the U.N., said there was no proof or evidence to support Alhakim's assertion.
Control of crops
Mouaz Moustafa, the executive director of the Syrian Emergency Task Force in Washington, told CNN that Raqqa, ISIS' de facto Syrian capital, is a kind of breadbasket. "They've got the cotton and the wheat." he said. The United States has targeted grain silos that ISIS controls.
A separate economy?
Last year, ISIS announced that its "Treasury Department" would start minting its own gold, silver and copper coins for its "Official Islamic State Financial System." It's not clear if this has any value. The move is "purely dedicated to God," ISIS declared, and will remove Muslims from the "global economic system that is based on satanic usury." Scott Bronstein and Drew Griffin contributed to this report.
Weapons, vehicles, employee salaries, propaganda videos, international travel — all of these things cost money. The recent terrorism attacks in Paris, which the Islamic State has claimed as its own work, suggest the terrorist organization hasn't been hurting for funding. David Cohen, the Treasury Department's Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence, described the Islamic State last October as "probably the best-funded terrorist organization we have confronted" — deep pockets that have allowed the group to carry out deadly campaigns in Iraq, Syria and other countries.
But where does the Islamic State get all this money? It turns out that the group's methods of financing are very different from other prominent terrorist organizations, and much more difficult for the United States and other countries to shut down. Unlike many terrorist groups, which finance themselves mainly through wealthy donors, the Islamic State has used its control over a territory that is roughly the size of the U.K. and home to millions of people to develop diversified revenue channels that make it more resilient to U.S. offensives.
Normally, U.S. efforts to cut off funding for terrorists focus on tracking and stopping the flow of funds through the international system. Since 9/11, the United States, other countries, and international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the United Nations have set up initiatives to detect and stop the flow of funds to terrorists. Leaders of the Group of 20 issued a statement on Sunday calling for better coordination to cut off funding channels to terrorist organizations, including exchanging information and freezing terrorist assets.
While the Treasury Department says these efforts have disrupted terrorist networks and saved lives, the Islamic State is a different animal. The Islamic State often avoids international finance, instead generating and spending funds within its own territory or immediately along its porous borders. "As for disrupting the revenue that ISIL generates from extortion and other local criminal activities, we recognize that Treasury’s tools are not particularly well-suited to the task," Cohen said in October, using another name for the Islamic State.
Estimates of the precise amount that the Islamic State earns from these activities tend to vary a lot and fluctuate over time, but what is certain is that the group is heavily diversified — meaning that if one funding source is shut down, the group can turn to others to generate revenue. Its main methods of generating money appear to be the sale of oil and antiquities, as well as taxation and extortion. And the group's financial resources have grown quickly as it has captured more territory and resources: According to estimates by the Rand Corporation, the Islamic State's total revenue rose from a little less than $1 million per month in late 2008 and early 2009 to perhaps $1 million to $3 million per day in 2014.
The Islamic State has other expenses, besides the cost of carrying out terrorist attacks and waging war. The terrorist group runs schools, a religious police force, food kitchens, an Islamic court system and even a Consumer Protection authority. It reportedly pays fighters roughly $400 a month, which is more than the Iraqi government offers some staff. The Islamic State sets and approves annual budgets, and it uses a chief financial officer-like figure to manage its accounts. It's also "fastidious" about documenting a return on investment for its funders. The Islamic State has established a central bank and even planned to mint its own currency — although in practice the group generally uses local currency, such as the Iraqi dinar and the Turkish lira.
Its control of an expansive territory obviously gives the Islamic State a valuable source of funding and flexibility. However, some U.S. officials have argued that having territory might also be seen as a weakness for the group. Maintaining a state of 8 million to 10 million people, waging war around its borders, and financing and carrying out international attacks are costly and difficult tasks. Without adequate funds to provide services to the local population, people in Islamic State territory might turn against the group, provoking a backlash that might end its grip on power, the thinking goes. In addition, reports from territory held by the group paint a picture of a brutal, two-tiered society, in which terrorists and their families live well and most others suffer. Under this pressure, the economy struggles to function, leaving the Islamic State with less and less to tax and to sell.
As other writers have pointed out, considered as a state ISIS looks quite poor, with a budget roughly on par with Afghanistan or the Democratic Republic of Congo. But considered as a terrorist organization, it looks wealthy and diversified. Below are 12 ways the Islamic State earns its revenue:
Oil: The oil fields that it has captured in Syria and Iraq have been a major source of funding for the terrorist group. Although it's relatively easy for the United States and other countries to prevent large-scale exports of oil from Islamic State territory, it's much harder to control the black market oil trade that reportedly flourishes along the porous borders of territory controlled by the Islamic State and surrounding countries.
Oil sales initially provided much of the Islamic State's revenue, but that has declined since the U.S. and others launched an extensive campaign of airstrikes on the group's oil and gas facilities, according to a report by the Congressional Research Service in April. By October 2014, the U.S. had reportedly destroyed about half of the group's refining capacity. The United States has also tried to identify and target oil brokers and encourage Turkey to clamp down on smuggling on its border.
The Islamic State's oil and gas revenue has also suffered because the engineers and other technical experts necessary to make these products have either fled the area or been killed. The terrorist group has been trying hard to recruit skilled people, as a recording by Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi calling for scientists, engineers, doctors and people with administrative expertise in July 2014 shows.
Taxation/extortion: Because the Islamic State controls an expansive territory, it can levy taxes on the people who live there. Some of these taxes are akin to those of a normal state, while others are more like extortion.
The Islamic State levies taxes on things including goods sold, utilities such as electricity and water (when they run, that is — in some areas, the electricity is only on for an hour a day), telecommunication companies, cash withdrawals from bank accounts, employee salaries, trucks entering Islamic State-controlled territory at checkpoints, looting archaeological sites and non-Muslim communities in general. A report by Thomson Reuters estimates that this system of extortion and taxation could generate as much as $360 million per year for the terrorist organization.
People in the area describe a kind of two-tiered system, where the Islamic State fighters and their families receive a variety of free services, including housing and medical care, while others are taxed heavily.
Kidnapping for ransom: A U.N. report from October 2014 cited estimates that the Islamic State had generated $35 million to $45 million in the previous year through kidnapping for ransom alone.
The United States and U.K. have tried to limit this financial channel by making it illegal to pay ransoms to terrorist organizations. The policy can seem very cold-hearted to the families that are affected by kidnapping, but officials maintain that it discourages terrorists from taking American and British hostages in the first place.
The Islamic State also generates a significant amount of revenue from kidnapping for ransom in its own communities, acts that tend to go unreported in the international press.
Wealthy donors: Although the Islamic State isn't primarily financed by wealthy donors the way that other terrorist organizations are, these contributions are still a substantial source of revenue.
Some estimates say that the Islamic State received up to $40 million in 2013-2014 from businessmen, wealthy families and other donors in Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates. Many of these elite donors chose to fund the Islamic State because of fear and animosity for Iran and Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. A report by the Brookings Institution in 2013 observed that donors in Kuwait were channeling hundreds of millions of dollars to various Syrian rebel groups.
After then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and others in the international community criticized these countries for financing terrorists, Saudi Arabia criminalized financial support in 2013 for the Islamic State, al-Qaeda and other terrorist organizations. The United Arab Emirates also appears to have made headway in limiting terrorist financing, according to Brookings. But other funding channels, including through unregistered charitable organizations that funnel money to the Islamic State, are still open.
Sales of antiquities: As the Islamic State has gained territory, it has taken control of museums, private collections and archaeological sites, such as the 9th century B.C. grand palace of Assyrian king Ashurnasirpal II. This has given the terrorist group an expansive supply of precious art and historical artifacts. Earlier this year, the group had at least 4,500 cultural sites under its control, according to the Paris-based Financial Action Task Force.
Some of these antiquities are destroyed, but others are resold for a profit, often flowing to markets in Turkey and Jordan, and from there to Europe and other advanced countries.
In November 2014, Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy told a House committee that the sale of antiquities — both those stolen from collections and those that were newly excavated — was the group's second-large source of revenue after illicit oil sales. Other U.S. estimates put the total volume of trade in antiquities at more than $100 million a year.
Iraqi banks: The Treasury Department has estimated that the Islamic State gained at least half a billion dollars in cash by seizing branches of state-owned banks in northern and western Iraq in 2014.
"Before Mosul, their total cash and assets were $875 million. ... Afterward, with the money they robbed from banks and the value of the military supplies they looted, they could add another $1.5 billion to that," a U.S. intelligence officer told the Guardian.
Sales of other looted property: As the Islamic State captures territory in Iraq, it has acquired American vehicles, weapons and ammunition that can be used or resold. It has also reportedly resold construction equipment, generators, electric cables, cars, livestock, furniture and other goods.
Real estate: According to Niqash.org, a Web site published in partnership with a German nonprofit, the Islamic State has been generating cash by renting and auctioning off the properties of people who have been killed or fled newly occupied areas. "Property owned by individuals that the IS group considered their enemies — such as Iraqi army and police, government officials, politicians, judges and public prosecutors — has also been seized. And recently the group decided they should also own the property belonging to specialists in certain fields, such as doctors," the report says.
According to an analysis of Islamic State documents from Mosul, property confiscated by Islamic State can be rented to locals, become bases for Islamic State fighters or members, or be redeveloped as new structures.
Foreign fighters: Some foreign fighters who travel to join the Islamic State bring with them hard currency — though this appears to be a relatively limited funding source for the Islamic State.
Agriculture: Islamic State now controls some of the most fertile parts of Iraq and Syria, which produce a lot of wheat and barley. According to Thomson Reuters, if those crops were sold at a 50 percent discount on the black market, that could still generate more than $200 million in annual income for the Islamic State.
Other crops are simply taken from farmers — one Syrian refugee interviewed by The Washington Post said the Islamic State took 10 percent of her family's wheat crop. Some of the wheat is milled in Islamic State-owned flour mills, according to reports, and subsequently sold to local people and bakeries.
Phosphate, cement and sulfur: The area that Islamic State has captured is rich in natural resources including phosphate, cement and sulfur. Thomson Reuters estimates that phosphate resources might generate as much at $50 million a year for Islamic State at discounted prices, while sulfuric acid and phosphoric acid might generate $300 million.
Human trafficking: Many reports have documented Islamic State's practice of selling women and girls into marriage or sexual slavery, including many women from the Yazidi and Shia-Tukoman minorities.
Trump, Cruz On Top In Topsy-Turvy Iowa GOP Caucus, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Keep Syrian Refugees Out, Republicans Say 5-1.
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Iowa poll: Cruz, not Carson, now Trump's chief rival. Ted Cruz has replaced Ben Carson as Donald Trump's chief GOP presidential primary rival in Iowa.
A Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday shows that Trump is the Republican presidential front-runner in the early voting state, with 25% support among GOP voters likely to participate in Iowa's February 1 caucuses.
But Cruz, the Texas senator, has moved into second place with 23% support -- double the backing he had just four weeks ago. Carson has fallen to third at 18% support, down 10 percentage points from his first-place perch a month ago when he led Trump, 28% to 20%.
Florida Sen. Marco Rubio is in fourth place with 13% support -- the only other candidate in double digits in Tuesday's poll.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush and Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul are tied for fifth place at 5% each and Carly Fiorina at 3%. No other candidate tops 2%.
"Last month, we said it was Dr. Ben Carson's turn in the spotlight. Today, the spotlight turns to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. The Iowa Republican Caucus has become a two-tiered contest: Businessman Donald Trump and neurosurgeon Ben Carson lead on the outsider track, and Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio lead among party insiders," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University poll, in a release announcing the results.
"The other candidates will need miraculous comebacks to crack the top tier with slightly more than two months before the voting begins," Brown said.
While Carson has seen his poll numbers drop, his favorability rating -- at 79% positive to 15% negative -- is still the best margin in the GOP field.
He's followed by Cruz (73% view him favorably while 15% see him unfavorably), Rubio (70% to 18%) and Trump (59% to 34%). Bush's rating -- he's seen favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 53% of likely Iowa Republican voters -- is underwater.
The pollsters found that 24% of likely Iowa GOP voters say the economy and jobs is the most important issue in deciding who they will support, followed by terrorism and foreign policy at 15%, the deficit at 11% and immigration at 10%.
Trump is by far the leader on the economy, judged best able to handle it by 49% of Republicans -- far ahead of Cruz's second-place showing at 11%.
And he's also seen as best able to handle terrorism, with 30% picking Trump, 20% preferring Cruz on the issue, 10% for Rubio and 7% for Bush.
The poll comes in the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks. About 88% of Iowa Republicans say they are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about the possibility of a similar attack in the United States.
And those Republicans broadly oppose allowing Syrian refugees into the United States, with 81% wanting those refugees kept out and 15% saying they should be let in. The voters surveyed support sending U.S. ground troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria, 73% to 22% opposed. By a margin of 83% to 9%, they say the United States and its allies are now losing to ISIS.
The poll surveyed 600 likely Iowa Republican caucus voters between November 16-22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Donald Trump gets 25 percent of Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants in a too-close-to- call race with Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas who is at 23 percent, double his support from four weeks ago, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Dr. Ben Carson has 18 percent, with Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 13 percent.
This compares to the results of an October 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University showing Carson at 28 percent, with 20 percent for Trump, Rubio at 13 percent and Cruz at 10 percent.
One thing that hasn't changed is the poor showing for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who goes from 5 percent October 22 to 4 percent today.
Today, Sen. Rand Paul is at 5 percent, with Carly Fiorina at 3 percent. No other candidate tops 2 percent, with 2 percent undecided.
Among Iowa Republican Caucus-goers, 26 percent say they "would definitely not support" Bush, with 23 percent saying "no way" to Trump.
"Last month, we said it was Dr. Ben Carson's turn in the spotlight. Today, the spotlight turns to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas. The Iowa Republican Caucus has become a two-tiered contest: Businessman Donald Trump and neurosurgeon Ben Carson lead on the outsider track, and Sens. Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio lead among party insiders," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"The other candidates will need miraculous comebacks to crack the top tier with slightly more than two months before the voting begins."
"Worth remembering, however, is that winning Iowa is no guarantee of success elsewhere. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee won the 2008 caucus and former Sen. Rick Santorum took the 2012 crown, yet both were quickly gone from those nomination fights as the primary calendar moved to larger states," Brown added.
Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants give Carson the best favorability rating, 79 - 15 percent, with 73 - 15 percent for Cruz, 70 - 18 percent for Rubio and 59 - 34 percent for Trump. Bush has a negative 39 - 53 percent favorability rating.
The economy and jobs are the most important issues in deciding who they will support, 24 percent of GOP caucus-goers say, with 15 percent each for terrorism and foreign policy, 11 percent for the federal deficit and 10 percent for immigration.
Trump can best handle the economy, 49 percent of Republicans say, with 11 percent picking Cruz. Carson, Rubio and Fiorina are the choice of 6 percent each.
Trump is tops handling terrorism, 30 percent of Republican Caucus-goers say, with 20 percent for Cruz, 10 percent for Rubio and 7 percent for Bush. Carson, Paul and New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie are at 5 percent each.
Cruz is best on foreign policy, 24 percent of Republicans say, with 18 percent for Trump, 15 percent for Rubio and 8 percent for Bush. Carson and Paul are at 6 percent each.
Iowa likely Republican Caucus participants oppose 81 - 15 percent allowing Syrian refugees into the U.S. and oppose 82 - 13 percent allowing them into Iowa.
Republicans support 73 - 22 percent sending U.S. ground troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria and say 83 - 9 percent that the U.S. and its allies are losing the fight against ISIS.
A total of 88 percent of Republicans are "very worried" or "somewhat worried" about the possibility of a terrorist attack in the U.S. similar to the attack in Paris.
"One thing almost all Iowa Republicans agree upon is that Syrian refugees should not be allowed into the United States or into Iowa," Brown said.
From November 16 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 600 likely Iowa Republican Caucus participants with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.
The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research.
For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll.
1. If the Republican caucus were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, who would you support? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you support Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, Huckabee, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Bush 4% 1% 3% 1% 1% 13% 3% 6% 6% 3% Carson 18 18 24 18 20 15 15 23 17 18 Christie 2 - 2 1 4 3 2 3 3 2 Cruz 23 42 27 38 17 6 21 26 20 25 Fiorina 3 2 3 2 4 4 3 4 4 3 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - - - - - Huckabee 2 1 2 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 Kasich 1 - 1 - - 2 1 1 2 - Pataki - - - - - - - - - - Paul 5 8 6 3 6 9 8 1 6 5 Rubio 13 5 8 9 16 15 13 12 18 10 Santorum 2 1 3 2 1 1 1 2 - 2 Trump 25 23 20 21 26 28 30 17 20 28 DK/NA 2 - 1 3 1 2 1 4 3 2 MOST IMPORTANT CHARACTERISTIC Q57................... Shares Strong Honest/ BestChance Values Leader Trustworthy OfWinning Bush 1% 3% 4% 6% Carson 24 10 21 19 Christie 1 1 1 4 Cruz 37 15 27 25 Fiorina 1 7 1 6 Gilmore - - - - Graham - - - - Huckabee 2 - 1 - Kasich - - 1 - Pataki - - - - Paul 7 4 7 3 Rubio 6 17 16 20 Santorum 2 - 3 - Trump 18 41 18 16 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q20............... MAKES BEST PRESIDENT Q58 Economy/ ForgnPlcy/ Sen/ NvrHeld Jobs Terrorism Immigration Gov House Office Bush 6% 4% 1% 6% 3% 1% Carson 18 17 4 16 12 21 Christie 1 3 - 4 1 - Cruz 19 27 22 26 34 15 Fiorina 5 4 3 2 - 6 Gilmore - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - Huckabee 1 2 2 3 - 1 Kasich 1 - - 2 - - Pataki - - - - - - Paul 5 5 - 5 13 4 Rubio 15 16 10 18 18 4 Santorum 1 1 - 2 3 2 Trump 27 19 55 13 13 45 DK/NA - 2 2 1 3 1 | |
1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the caucus? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS...................................... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.......................................... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1......................... Tot Carson Cruz Rubio Trump Made up 41% 33% 44% 22% 51% Might change 58 65 53 78 48 DK/NA 2 1 4 - 1 | |
2. Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Bush 26% 39% 23% 33% 19% 22% 30% 20% 25% 26% Carson 9 3 6 4 9 17 8 11 14 6 Christie 14 19 14 16 10 15 16 11 15 13 Cruz 5 2 3 3 5 11 6 4 8 4 Fiorina 10 11 12 11 8 10 11 7 12 8 Gilmore 11 12 12 16 8 8 10 14 14 10 Graham 15 26 17 21 14 8 16 14 15 16 Huckabee 10 9 7 9 10 11 11 8 14 8 Kasich 19 29 24 26 16 11 21 18 20 19 Pataki 14 18 15 18 12 9 13 15 15 13 Paul 12 7 14 13 15 8 10 16 11 13 Rubio 7 12 5 8 5 9 9 4 6 7 Santorum 9 7 7 9 8 10 10 7 11 8 Trump 23 21 25 17 25 35 23 24 32 19 No/No one 27 27 26 28 28 24 27 27 23 29 DK/NA 5 2 3 4 6 5 4 7 5 5 | |
5. Compared to past presidential caucuses in Iowa, how would you describe your level of enthusiasm about attending a presidential caucus in February 2016; are you more enthusiastic than usual, less enthusiastic, or about the same as usual? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No More 49% 57% 56% 58% 45% 39% 50% 47% 41% 53% Less 7 3 5 3 8 14 8 6 11 5 About the same 43 40 39 39 46 47 41 46 47 41 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 1 1 - 1 - | |
6. Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 39% 18% 38% 37% 39% 44% 33% 48% 45% 36% Unfavorable 53 76 54 57 52 46 59 43 47 56 Hvn't hrd enough 7 5 7 4 8 8 7 6 7 7 REFUSED 2 1 - 2 1 1 1 3 1 2 | |
7. Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 79% 87% 85% 90% 76% 64% 80% 77% 71% 82% Unfavorable 15 7 9 7 16 28 13 17 23 10 Hvn't hrd enough 6 6 5 3 8 7 7 4 6 6 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 - 2 1 2 - 2 | |
8. Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 45% 33% 44% 44% 49% 42% 46% 45% 49% 44% Unfavorable 40 52 40 43 31 47 43 34 41 38 Hvn't hrd enough 13 15 14 11 17 11 10 18 9 16 REFUSED 2 1 2 2 3 - 1 3 1 2 | |
9. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 73% 86% 77% 86% 74% 47% 73% 72% 67% 76% Unfavorable 15 6 11 7 14 29 16 13 22 11 Hvn't hrd enough 12 8 11 7 11 23 11 14 11 13 REFUSED 1 - 1 - - 1 - 1 - 1 | |
10. Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 60% 60% 64% 68% 57% 48% 60% 60% 64% 58% Unfavorable 19 23 16 16 20 26 22 16 20 19 Hvn't hrd enough 19 15 19 14 22 24 17 23 15 21 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 | |
11. Is your opinion of Jim Gilmore favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 1% - 1% 1% - 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% Unfavorable 19 19 18 24 14 16 18 20 17 20 Hvn't hrd enough 79 80 80 74 84 82 79 78 80 78 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 2 - 1 1 1 1 | |
12. Is your opinion of Lindsey Graham favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 20% 14% 19% 18% 18% 25% 18% 23% 24% 18% Unfavorable 45 64 46 55 37 40 50 38 48 44 Hvn't hrd enough 33 20 35 25 44 32 30 37 27 37 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 1 3 2 2 1 2 | |
13. Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 61% 64% 71% 72% 63% 38% 59% 63% 55% 64% Unfavorable 28 28 20 21 26 42 30 24 35 24 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 9 6 10 18 10 11 9 11 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 2 1 1 1 1 | |
14. Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 22% 12% 21% 22% 24% 20% 23% 22% 29% 19% Unfavorable 39 58 43 51 32 28 43 33 37 41 Hvn't hrd enough 37 28 35 26 44 50 32 45 33 39 REFUSED 1 2 - 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 | |
15. Is your opinion of George Pataki favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 5% 4% 6% 7% 3% 5% 5% 6% 7% 4% Unfavorable 36 39 32 43 32 27 38 33 38 35 Hvn't hrd enough 58 57 61 49 64 66 56 60 54 60 REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 | |
16. Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 41% 53% 42% 46% 41% 33% 49% 30% 41% 41% Unfavorable 44 37 44 42 42 52 40 52 47 43 Hvn't hrd enough 12 10 10 9 14 12 10 14 11 12 REFUSED 3 1 3 3 3 3 1 5 1 4 | |
17. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 70% 64% 70% 75% 74% 54% 67% 74% 73% 68% Unfavorable 18 26 17 15 14 29 21 14 17 18 Hvn't hrd enough 10 9 11 8 11 14 11 10 9 11 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 3 1 2 | |
18. Is your opinion of Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 50% 56% 56% 64% 47% 28% 46% 56% 42% 54% Unfavorable 31 30 23 21 31 50 36 23 39 27 Hvn't hrd enough 17 13 19 14 20 20 16 19 18 17 REFUSED 2 1 2 1 3 2 2 2 1 2 | |
19. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Favorable 59% 62% 53% 65% 60% 46% 63% 54% 51% 63% Unfavorable 34 32 37 27 33 50 32 37 46 28 Hvn't hrd enough 4 5 7 6 3 2 3 5 2 5 REFUSED 2 1 3 2 4 2 2 4 1 3 | |
20. Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, taxes, or gun policy? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Economy and jobs 24% 20% 18% 16% 34% 24% 27% 19% 30% 20% Terrorism 15 14 17 20 12 11 11 22 11 17 Immigration 10 13 8 11 9 11 11 10 13 9 Federal deficit 11 12 11 8 10 19 13 8 13 10 Health care 4 3 6 5 5 2 4 5 1 6 Foreign policy 15 12 16 15 15 14 14 16 12 17 Climate change - - - - - 1 - - - - Race relations 1 - 2 - - 3 - 2 - 1 Abortion 6 9 10 10 4 2 5 7 8 5 Taxes 4 4 4 2 7 5 5 3 6 4 Gun policy 5 8 5 7 3 5 7 2 2 7 DK/NA 5 6 4 6 2 4 4 6 3 6 | |
21. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - the economy? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Bush 5% 1% 5% 4% 4% 11% 3% 9% 9% 3% Carson 6 4 10 5 7 7 5 8 6 6 Christie 1 - 2 - 3 2 1 1 2 1 Cruz 11 21 12 19 7 2 12 10 8 13 Fiorina 6 3 6 3 8 10 5 8 7 6 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - - - - - Huckabee 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 - 2 Kasich 2 - 1 1 1 4 2 2 4 1 Pataki - - - - - - - - - - Paul 5 12 7 5 5 6 8 1 7 5 Rubio 6 3 4 6 6 7 7 6 9 5 Santorum - 1 - - - - - - - - Trump 49 51 46 50 53 42 53 43 41 54 DK/NA 5 3 5 5 4 8 2 10 6 5 | |
22. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - foreign policy? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Bush 8% 1% 7% 7% 7% 14% 8% 9% 11% 7% Carson 6 4 8 4 5 11 5 7 4 7 Christie 2 1 2 1 4 1 2 2 3 2 Cruz 24 43 30 37 20 7 25 24 22 25 Fiorina 3 3 4 2 4 3 3 4 5 2 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham 2 2 1 2 1 6 3 2 3 2 Huckabee 2 2 2 1 3 1 2 1 1 2 Kasich 2 - 1 - 2 3 1 3 2 1 Pataki - - - - - - - - - - Paul 6 9 6 4 6 10 9 2 7 6 Rubio 15 10 12 17 14 14 14 17 19 13 Santorum 1 1 1 1 1 - - 1 1 1 Trump 18 19 15 16 20 17 21 12 12 21 DK/NA 11 6 10 8 12 13 7 17 9 12 | |
23. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - illegal immigration? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Bush 4% 2% 3% 1% 4% 7% 4% 3% 5% 3% Carson 5 3 8 4 5 8 4 7 6 5 Christie 1 - 1 1 2 1 1 2 2 1 Cruz 20 35 24 28 18 9 18 24 18 21 Fiorina 2 1 2 1 2 3 2 2 3 1 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - - - - - Huckabee 1 1 2 2 1 - 1 1 - 2 Kasich 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 - Pataki - - - - - - - - - - Paul 3 2 2 2 3 4 4 1 3 2 Rubio 12 4 10 8 15 15 12 11 15 10 Santorum - 1 - - - - - - 1 - Trump 45 47 41 49 44 40 49 40 37 50 DK/NA 6 5 6 3 5 13 4 9 8 5 | |
24. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - social issues, such as abortion and same-sex marriage? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Bush 3% 1% 2% 1% 3% 8% 3% 3% 5% 2% Carson 21 19 25 22 21 21 20 24 22 20 Christie 2 - 2 - 4 3 3 1 2 2 Cruz 20 35 25 31 13 8 19 21 16 22 Fiorina 4 3 4 2 6 4 3 5 5 4 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - 1 - - 1 - Huckabee 7 8 10 10 8 - 7 7 6 8 Kasich 1 - - 1 1 1 1 1 2 - Pataki - - - - - - - - - - Paul 5 10 5 4 4 9 8 - 6 5 Rubio 7 3 5 5 8 9 7 6 9 6 Santorum 4 2 7 5 5 3 5 3 3 5 Trump 12 13 10 12 12 9 13 9 8 14 DK/NA 14 6 6 7 15 24 11 18 15 13 | |
25. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - taxes? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Bush 6% - 5% 4% 5% 13% 4% 9% 10% 4% Carson 10 9 15 8 12 13 8 15 8 12 Christie 3 1 4 2 4 2 3 3 3 3 Cruz 18 33 18 26 14 11 20 14 15 19 Fiorina 4 2 4 3 5 4 4 3 3 4 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - - - - - - Huckabee 2 1 2 1 3 - 2 - 2 2 Kasich 2 1 1 1 2 3 2 2 4 - Pataki - - - - - - - - - - Paul 7 13 7 6 6 9 10 2 9 5 Rubio 5 3 3 5 7 5 6 4 9 4 Santorum 2 1 4 3 2 1 2 2 1 2 Trump 33 32 29 34 32 33 34 32 29 36 DK/NA 8 4 8 8 10 7 6 13 8 9 | |
26. Regardless of who you are voting for, which Republican candidate do you think can best handle - terrorism? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Bush 7% 2% 5% 5% 6% 11% 6% 7% 10% 5% Carson 5 3 7 3 4 9 3 7 5 5 Christie 5 3 4 3 6 5 5 4 6 4 Cruz 20 34 25 31 17 5 20 20 17 22 Fiorina 2 2 3 1 3 2 2 2 3 2 Gilmore - - - - - - - - - - Graham 2 1 - - 2 5 2 2 3 1 Huckabee 1 1 1 1 2 - 1 1 - 2 Kasich 1 - 1 - - 2 - 1 1 - Pataki - - - - - - - - - - Paul 5 9 6 3 5 10 8 1 5 6 Rubio 10 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 13 8 Santorum 1 1 1 1 - - - 1 1 1 Trump 30 30 29 34 31 23 34 24 26 33 DK/NA 12 6 10 8 13 18 8 19 11 13 | |
27. Would you say that - Marco Rubio is honest and trustworthy or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 73% 68% 74% 75% 79% 61% 73% 73% 75% 72% No 19 26 17 20 12 28 22 15 18 19 DK/NA 8 5 9 5 9 11 5 12 7 9 | |
28. Would you say that - Ben Carson is honest and trustworthy or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 88% 92% 95% 94% 88% 78% 89% 86% 84% 90% No 10 5 4 4 10 19 9 11 13 8 DK/NA 2 3 1 1 2 3 2 3 3 2 | |
29. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 59% 61% 61% 62% 58% 54% 60% 57% 52% 64% No 37 36 36 33 37 43 37 36 45 32 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 5 3 3 7 3 5 | |
30. Would you say that - Ted Cruz is honest and trustworthy or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 80% 90% 87% 90% 81% 60% 80% 80% 80% 80% No 13 9 6 5 13 29 16 9 15 13 DK/NA 7 1 7 4 6 10 4 11 6 7 | |
31. Would you say that - Jeb Bush is honest and trustworthy or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 64% 52% 68% 62% 64% 70% 59% 72% 69% 62% No 33 47 30 36 33 28 40 23 28 35 DK/NA 3 1 2 3 3 3 2 5 3 3 | |
32. Would you say that - Marco Rubio has strong leadership qualities or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 71% 69% 74% 78% 70% 62% 72% 71% 74% 71% No 22 26 19 17 23 31 25 18 21 22 DK/NA 6 5 8 5 7 8 4 10 5 7 | |
33. Would you say that - Ben Carson has strong leadership qualities or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 65% 73% 76% 71% 62% 57% 65% 64% 59% 68% No 32 23 22 26 34 39 31 33 38 29 DK/NA 4 3 3 3 3 4 4 3 4 3 | |
34. Would you say that - Donald Trump has strong leadership qualities or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 83% 85% 82% 83% 86% 77% 81% 85% 77% 86% No 17 15 18 17 14 23 18 15 22 14 DK/NA - 1 - 1 - 1 - - 1 - | |
35. Would you say that - Ted Cruz has strong leadership qualities or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 80% 88% 83% 91% 83% 56% 81% 78% 78% 81% No 16 10 11 6 14 35 16 14 18 14 DK/NA 4 2 5 3 3 9 2 8 4 5 | |
36. Would you say that - Jeb Bush has strong leadership qualities or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 61% 46% 62% 58% 62% 65% 58% 66% 64% 59% No 38 52 37 40 38 34 42 32 33 40 DK/NA 2 1 2 2 - 2 1 3 2 1 | |
37. Would you say that - Marco Rubio cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 76% 69% 75% 79% 79% 66% 75% 77% 77% 75% No 18 27 16 17 15 27 22 13 18 19 DK/NA 6 4 8 4 7 7 3 10 5 6 | |
38. Would you say that - Ben Carson cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 87% 94% 95% 95% 87% 75% 89% 85% 85% 89% No 10 5 3 4 10 20 8 13 12 9 DK/NA 3 2 2 1 3 5 3 2 3 3 | |
39. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 58% 63% 55% 63% 62% 43% 61% 54% 51% 62% No 39 36 41 34 34 55 37 42 47 35 DK/NA 3 1 4 2 4 2 1 5 2 3 | |
40. Would you say that - Ted Cruz cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 81% 91% 86% 89% 84% 61% 83% 78% 76% 83% No 14 7 9 8 11 29 14 14 20 11 DK/NA 5 1 5 3 5 9 3 8 4 5 | |
41. Would you say that - Jeb Bush cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 56% 39% 58% 52% 58% 63% 54% 60% 64% 52% No 39 58 35 43 38 34 44 32 32 43 DK/NA 4 3 7 5 4 3 2 8 4 4 | |
42. Would you say that - Marco Rubio has the right kind of experience to be President or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 68% 70% 74% 72% 70% 57% 69% 67% 68% 68% No 27 29 21 25 25 35 29 24 28 26 DK/NA 5 1 5 3 5 8 2 9 4 6 | |
43. Would you say that - Ben Carson has the right kind of experience to be President or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 49% 62% 57% 60% 46% 33% 50% 49% 46% 51% No 45 36 38 34 49 61 47 44 49 44 DK/NA 5 2 5 5 4 6 4 8 4 6 | |
44. Would you say that - Donald Trump has the right kind of experience to be President or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 62% 65% 63% 67% 61% 52% 64% 58% 54% 65% No 36 33 35 30 38 45 34 39 44 32 DK/NA 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 3 2 3 | |
45. Would you say that - Ted Cruz has the right kind of experience to be President or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 75% 85% 79% 86% 76% 54% 75% 74% 72% 76% No 19 12 14 10 19 37 21 16 23 17 DK/NA 6 2 7 4 5 10 3 9 5 6 | |
46. Would you say that - Jeb Bush has the right kind of experience to be President or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 75% 61% 77% 71% 78% 80% 72% 79% 81% 72% No 24 39 23 29 21 20 27 20 18 28 DK/NA 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 1 1 - | |
47. Would you say that - Marco Rubio shares your values or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 69% 64% 69% 75% 71% 54% 67% 72% 73% 67% No 25 34 23 21 21 36 29 17 20 27 DK/NA 7 2 8 4 8 10 4 11 7 6 | |
48. Would you say that - Ben Carson shares your values or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 84% 91% 95% 95% 82% 67% 84% 83% 78% 87% No 13 7 3 3 15 27 13 13 18 10 DK/NA 3 2 2 2 3 7 3 4 4 3 | |
49. Would you say that - Donald Trump shares your values or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 52% 59% 49% 52% 57% 44% 57% 45% 41% 59% No 44 37 49 45 37 55 40 51 56 37 DK/NA 4 4 2 3 6 2 4 4 3 4 | |
50. Would you say that - Ted Cruz shares your values or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 75% 89% 81% 89% 76% 50% 74% 78% 72% 77% No 19 9 13 8 18 39 21 14 22 17 DK/NA 6 1 5 3 6 11 5 8 6 6 | |
51. Would you say that - Jeb Bush shares your values or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 52% 34% 49% 44% 55% 65% 51% 55% 60% 48% No 43 64 44 49 42 33 47 37 34 48 DK/NA 5 2 7 7 3 2 2 9 6 4 | |
52. Would you say that - Marco Rubio would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 67% 65% 68% 71% 74% 48% 68% 65% 69% 66% No 29 32 27 25 23 46 30 28 26 31 DK/NA 4 3 4 4 3 6 3 7 6 3 | |
53. Would you say that - Ben Carson would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 67% 79% 75% 76% 64% 55% 70% 62% 60% 71% No 30 20 23 21 32 42 28 33 38 25 DK/NA 3 1 2 3 3 3 2 4 2 4 | |
54. Would you say that - Donald Trump would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 70% 73% 69% 76% 70% 59% 71% 69% 61% 75% No 27 24 27 20 29 37 27 26 37 22 DK/NA 3 3 4 4 1 4 2 5 2 4 | |
55. Would you say that - Ted Cruz would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 64% 79% 72% 81% 61% 37% 64% 64% 60% 66% No 34 21 26 16 38 61 35 32 38 31 DK/NA 2 1 2 3 1 3 2 4 2 3 | |
56. Would you say that - Jeb Bush would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Yes 31% 22% 29% 27% 36% 34% 31% 32% 34% 30% No 65 76 69 66 64 64 66 63 63 67 DK/NA 4 2 2 6 - 2 3 5 3 3 | |
57. Thinking about the Republican nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Shares values 21% 35% 28% 29% 16% 13% 23% 19% 21% 21% Cares needs/problems 8 4 9 5 8 16 11 5 5 11 Strong leadership 24 23 16 21 28 26 24 25 29 22 Honest/trustworthy 24 25 26 23 26 22 25 22 22 25 Right experience 4 1 3 3 4 5 4 4 5 3 Best chance/winning 16 10 16 15 18 16 13 21 17 16 DK/NA 3 2 2 5 1 1 1 4 1 3 | |
58. Generally speaking, what type of candidate makes the best president someone who has served as a Governor of a state, someone who has served in the U.S. Senate or House of Representatives, or someone who has never held an elected office? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Governor 42% 35% 45% 42% 45% 37% 41% 42% 50% 38% U.S. Senate/House 15 15 15 12 16 19 14 16 15 15 Never held office 31 35 27 29 31 32 34 26 23 35 DK/NA 13 15 12 17 8 12 10 16 12 13 | |
82. Do you support or oppose accepting Syrian refugees into the U.S.? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Support 15% 6% 12% 7% 16% 28% 15% 13% 22% 10% Oppose 81 93 82 90 79 67 82 79 73 86 DK/NA 5 1 5 4 5 5 2 8 5 3 | |
83. Do you support or oppose accepting Syrian refugees into Iowa? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Support 13% 4% 11% 6% 13% 27% 14% 12% 22% 8% Oppose 82 95 84 91 81 67 84 80 73 88 DK/NA 5 1 5 3 6 5 2 8 5 4 | |
84. Would you support or oppose the U.S. sending ground troops to fight ISIS in Iraq and Syria? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Support 73% 78% 77% 78% 72% 68% 76% 69% 70% 75% Oppose 22 17 19 18 23 28 21 25 24 22 DK/NA 4 5 3 4 4 4 3 6 6 3 Mltry HsHld Support 72% Oppose 20 DK/NA 8 | |
85. Do you think the United States and its allies are winning or losing the fight against ISIS? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Winning 9% 7% 8% 8% 10% 12% 10% 9% 8% 10% Losing 83 88 86 88 83 76 83 83 82 84 DK/NA 7 5 6 5 7 12 7 8 9 6 Mltry HsHld Winning 9% Losing 83 DK/NA 8 | |
86. How worried are you about the possibility of a terrorist attack in the United States, like the ones that happened recently in Paris; very worried, somewhat worried, not so worried, or not worried at all? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No Very worried 53% 59% 55% 59% 55% 39% 53% 53% 51% 55% Somewhat worried 35 31 35 31 35 43 32 39 34 35 Not so worried 8 5 7 7 9 11 10 5 12 5 Not worried at all 3 5 3 2 1 7 4 1 2 4 DK/NA 1 - - 1 - - - 1 - 1 | |
87. Do the terrorist attacks in Paris make you more likely to support stricter gun laws, less likely to support stricter gun laws, or don't they make a difference? | |
LIKELY REP CAUCUS-GOERS............................................ Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ COLLEGE DEG Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Yes No More likely 7% 2% 8% 5% 7% 9% 4% 12% 7% 7% Less likely 48 64 55 60 48 27 52 42 40 53 No difference 43 31 36 31 44 63 43 43 52 38 DK/NA 2 4 1 3 1 1 1 3 1 2 | |
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